June 24, 2021 Headlines

An improved tone in risk markets has U.S. equity futures up 50-60 basis points in early trading this morning, and Treasuries are little changed across the curve. Bank of England officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark rate and asset purchase program unchanged while warning against “premature tightening” due to general inflation worries. Economic data released this morning were generally softer relative to expectations. May durable goods orders rose 2.3% m/m versus expectations of a 2.8% gain, and non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for cap ex, fell 0.1% over the month versus expectations of a 0.6% gain. On a positive note, the April data was revised higher, which contributed to the May downside surprise. Initial jobless claims fell less than expected last week to 411,000.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

06/21/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.70.290.24-0.09
06/22/21Existing Home Sales5.73m5.80m5.85m
06/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-2.10%-0.90%-2.70%
06/22/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index182218
06/23/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.10%4.20%
06/23/21Current Account Balance-$206.2b-$195.7b-$188.5b-$175.1b
06/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI61.562.662.1
06/23/21Markit US Services PMI7064.870.4
06/23/21Markit US Composite PMI63.968.7
06/23/21New Home Sales865k769k863k817k
06/23/21New Home Sales MoM0.20%-5.90%-5.90%-7.80%
06/24/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.5b-$88.1b-$85.2b-$85.7b
06/24/21Retail Inventories MoM-0.50%-0.80%-1.60%-1.80%
06/24/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.10%0.80%1.00%
06/24/21Durable Goods Orders2.80%2.30%-1.30%-0.80%
06/24/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.30%1.00%1.70%
06/24/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%-0.10%2.20%2.70%
06/24/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.90%0.90%1.00%
06/24/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.40%6.40%6.40%
06/24/21Personal Consumption11.40%11.40%11.30%
06/24/21GDP Price Index4.30%4.30%4.30%
06/24/21Core PCE QoQ2.50%2.50%2.50%
06/24/21Initial Jobless Claims380k411k412k418k
06/24/21Continuing Claims3460k3390k3518k3534k
06/24/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.2
06/24/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2426
06/25/21Personal Income-2.50%-13.10%
06/25/21Personal Spending0.40%0.50%
06/25/21Real Personal Spending-0.10%-0.10%
06/25/21PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.60%
06/25/21PCE Deflator YoY3.90%3.60%
06/25/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.70%
06/25/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.40%3.10%
06/25/21U. of Mich. Sentiment86.586.4
06/25/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions91.490.6
06/25/21U. of Mich. Expectations83.883.8
06/25/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.00%
06/25/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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