June 24, 2021 Headlines

An improved tone in risk markets has U.S. equity futures up 50-60 basis points in early trading this morning, and Treasuries are little changed across the curve. Bank of England officials voted unanimously to keep the benchmark rate and asset purchase program unchanged while warning against “premature tightening” due to general inflation worries. Economic data released this morning were generally softer relative to expectations. May durable goods orders rose 2.3% m/m versus expectations of a 2.8% gain, and non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which are used as a proxy for cap ex, fell 0.1% over the month versus expectations of a 0.6% gain. On a positive note, the April data was revised higher, which contributed to the May downside surprise. Initial jobless claims fell less than expected last week to 411,000.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
06/21/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.70.290.24-0.09
06/22/21Existing Home Sales5.73m5.80m5.85m
06/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-2.10%-0.90%-2.70%
06/22/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index182218
06/23/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.10%4.20%
06/23/21Current Account Balance-$206.2b-$195.7b-$188.5b-$175.1b
06/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI61.562.662.1
06/23/21Markit US Services PMI7064.870.4
06/23/21Markit US Composite PMI63.968.7
06/23/21New Home Sales865k769k863k817k
06/23/21New Home Sales MoM0.20%-5.90%-5.90%-7.80%
06/24/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.5b-$88.1b-$85.2b-$85.7b
06/24/21Retail Inventories MoM-0.50%-0.80%-1.60%-1.80%
06/24/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.10%0.80%1.00%
06/24/21Durable Goods Orders2.80%2.30%-1.30%-0.80%
06/24/21Durables Ex Transportation0.70%0.30%1.00%1.70%
06/24/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%-0.10%2.20%2.70%
06/24/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.90%0.90%1.00%
06/24/21GDP Annualized QoQ6.40%6.40%6.40%
06/24/21Personal Consumption11.40%11.40%11.30%
06/24/21GDP Price Index4.30%4.30%4.30%
06/24/21Core PCE QoQ2.50%2.50%2.50%
06/24/21Initial Jobless Claims380k411k412k418k
06/24/21Continuing Claims3460k3390k3518k3534k
06/24/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.2
06/24/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2426
06/25/21Personal Income-2.50%-13.10%
06/25/21Personal Spending0.40%0.50%
06/25/21Real Personal Spending-0.10%-0.10%
06/25/21PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.60%
06/25/21PCE Deflator YoY3.90%3.60%
06/25/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.70%
06/25/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.40%3.10%
06/25/21U. of Mich. Sentiment86.586.4
06/25/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions91.490.6
06/25/21U. of Mich. Expectations83.883.8
06/25/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.00%
06/25/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.