June 24, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher in a relatively quiet start to the day as it feels like markets taking a breather today, for now at least. James Bullard (St Louis Fed) and Mary Daly (SF Fed) are both speaking today, and the final version of the June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released later this morning. The preliminary survey results on June 10 contributed, in part, to the severe 2-day sell off in Treasuries after the sentiment index set a record low (began in 1978) and long-term inflation expectations surged higher.  The Fed’s annual stress test for the country’s 34 largest banks revealed that capital levels remained well above minimum requirements even in the most severe stress (recession) scenario. Although $600 billion would be lost in the scenario, capital ratios would fall to 9.7% on average. This severe scenario lives up to its name and includes unemployment peaking at 10% in Q3 2023, a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 28.5% decline in home prices, widening corporate bond spreads, and a 55% decline in stock prices.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/21/22 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.47 0.01 0.47 0.4
06/21/22 Existing Home Sales 5.40m 5.41m 5.61m 5.60m
06/21/22 Existing Home Sales MoM -3.70% -3.40% -2.40% -2.60%
06/22/22 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.20% 6.60%
06/23/22 Current Account Balance -$275.0b -$291.4b -$217.9b -$224.8b
06/23/22 Initial Jobless Claims 226k 229k 229k 231k
06/23/22 Continuing Claims 1320k 1315k 1312k 1310k
06/23/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 56 52.4 57
06/23/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 53.3 51.6 53.4
06/23/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53 51.2 53.6
06/23/22 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 10 12 23
06/24/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 50.2 50.2
06/24/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 55.4 55.4
06/24/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 46.8
06/24/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.40% 5.40%
06/24/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.30%
06/24/22 New Home Sales 590k 591k
06/24/22 New Home Sales MoM -0.20% -16.60%

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