June 25, 2020 Headlines

Concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19 cases is weighing on risk sentiment for the second consecutive day. The S&P 500 closed down 2.6% yesterday, and futures are down 0.7% ahead of the open. The increase in COVID cases and hospitalizations has been prevalent in the three states with the largest populations (CA, FL, and TX), sparking fresh investor worries of the economic implications of renewed lockdowns in those states. As such, continued improvement in recent economic data reports has been overshadowed. May durable goods orders surged 15.8% from the prior month, outpacing expectations by more than 5 points. Core orders, which are a proxy for business investment, rose 2.3% (1% expected) in May following a 6.5% decline the prior month. Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 20 declined from the prior week to 1.48 million, albeit a smaller decline than expected, and continuing claims (June 13) fell below 20 million for the first time in two months. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/22/2020Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-102.61-16.74-17.89
6/22/2020Existing Home Sales4.09m3.91m4.33m
6/22/2020Existing Home Sales MoM-5.60%-9.70%-17.80%
6/23/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI5049.639.8
6/23/2020Markit US Services PMI4846.737.5
6/23/2020Markit US Composite PMI46.837
6/23/2020New Home Sales640k676k623k580k
6/23/2020New Home Sales MoM2.70%16.60%0.60%-5.20%
6/23/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-20-27
6/24/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-8.70%8.00%
6/24/2020FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%
6/25/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$68.2b-$74.3b-$69.7b-$70.7b
6/25/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%-1.20%0.30%0.20%
6/25/2020Retail Inventories MoM-2.00%-6.10%-3.60%-3.80%
6/25/2020Durable Goods Orders10.50%15.80%-17.70%-18.10%
6/25/2020Durables Ex Transportation2.10%4.00%-7.70%-8.20%
6/25/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%2.30%-6.10%-6.50%
6/25/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-1.00%1.80%-5.70%-6.20%
6/25/2020GDP Annualized QoQ-5.00%-5.00%-5.00%
6/25/2020Personal Consumption-6.80%-6.80%-6.80%
6/25/2020GDP Price Index1.40%1.40%1.40%
6/25/2020Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.70%1.60%
6/25/2020Initial Jobless Claims1320k1480k1508k1540k
6/25/2020Continuing Claims20000k19522k20544k20289k
6/25/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort40.2
6/25/2020Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-1-19
6/26/2020Personal Income-6.00%10.50%
6/26/2020Personal Spending9.00%-13.60%
6/26/2020Real Personal Spending8.70%-13.20%
6/26/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.00%-0.50%
6/26/2020PCE Deflator YoY0.50%0.50%
6/26/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.00%-0.40%
6/26/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY0.90%1.00%
6/26/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment79.278.9
6/26/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions8887.8
6/26/2020U. of Mich. Expectations7473.1
6/26/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
6/26/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%


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