June 25, 2021 Headlines

It’s a sleepy morning for U.S. financial markets following a quiet overnight session. Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly lower across the curve, and equity futures are modestly higher. The May PCE inflation report came in a bit tamer than expected, with the core rate rising 0.5% m/m (0.6% expected). To be clear, this is still a well above average monthly print, but with the May CPI report out earlier this month, it’s already mostly baked into market pricing. Personal spending was unchanged in May, also below expectations of 0.4% growth; however, the May miss was largely impacted by an upward revision to the April spending data (0.5% to 0.9%). Multiple regional Fed bank presidents will be speaking today, beginning with Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) later this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/25/2021Personal Income-2.50%-2.00%-13.10%
6/25/2021Personal Spending0.40%0.00%0.50%0.90%
6/25/2021Real Personal Spending-0.10%-0.40%-0.10%0.30%
6/25/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.40%0.60%
6/25/2021PCE Deflator YoY3.90%3.90%3.60%
6/25/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.60%0.50%0.70%
6/25/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.40%3.40%3.10%
6/25/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment86.586.4
6/25/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions9290.6
6/25/2021U. of Mich. Expectations83.883.8
6/25/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.00%
6/25/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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