Trade concerns are weighing on global risk markets again this morning and sparking a bid for Treasuries. All major overseas equity indices are lower (Nikkei -0.79%, Hang Seng -1.29%, Euro Stoxx -1.10%), and S&P 500 futures are currently down 13 points. The lead headline in financial markets today involves U.S. plans to restrict Chinese investments in American companies, which are expected to be announced later this week. Such restrictions have been known to be part of the Trump administration’s plans for quite some time, but the initial perception/reaction is an escalation of already heightened trade tensions between China and the United States. In a separate (but likely related) move, the Chinese government is cutting its required reserve ratio for banks by 50 bps, which is also contributing to today’s risk-off move in the markets. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the durable goods orders report on Wednesday and PCE on Friday (both for May). Multiple Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Randal Quarles speaking on bank regulation Wednesday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/25/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.3-0.150.340.42
06/25/2018New Home Sales667k662k
06/25/2018New Home Sales MoM0.80%-1.50%
06/25/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2326.8
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.53%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.80%6.79%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index208.62
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index198.94
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.53%
06/26/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1516
06/26/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128128
06/26/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.7
06/26/2018Conf. Board Expectations105.6
06/27/2018MBA Mortgage Applications5.10%
06/27/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.10%
06/27/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.50%
06/27/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$69.0b-$68.2b-$67.3b
06/27/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.90%-1.60%
06/27/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.90%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%1.00%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.90%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.70%-1.30%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.40%
06/28/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k218k
06/28/2018Continuing Claims1718k1723k
06/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.20%
06/28/2018Personal Consumption1.00%1.00%
06/28/2018GDP Price Index1.90%1.90%
06/28/2018Core PCE QoQ2.30%
06/28/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.5
06/28/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2629
06/29/2018Personal Income0.40%0.30%
06/29/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.60%
06/29/2018Real Personal Spending0.20%0.40%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.00%
06/29/2018PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Core YoY1.90%1.80%
06/29/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager6062.7
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment99.299.3
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions117.9
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.4
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.60%1.80%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.258.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment56.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid7579.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending