Trade concerns are weighing on global risk markets again this morning and sparking a bid for Treasuries. All major overseas equity indices are lower (Nikkei -0.79%, Hang Seng -1.29%, Euro Stoxx -1.10%), and S&P 500 futures are currently down 13 points. The lead headline in financial markets today involves U.S. plans to restrict Chinese investments in American companies, which are expected to be announced later this week. Such restrictions have been known to be part of the Trump administration’s plans for quite some time, but the initial perception/reaction is an escalation of already heightened trade tensions between China and the United States. In a separate (but likely related) move, the Chinese government is cutting its required reserve ratio for banks by 50 bps, which is also contributing to today’s risk-off move in the markets. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the durable goods orders report on Wednesday and PCE on Friday (both for May). Multiple Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Randal Quarles speaking on bank regulation Wednesday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
06/25/2018 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.3 -0.15 0.34 0.42
06/25/2018 New Home Sales 667k 662k
06/25/2018 New Home Sales MoM 0.80% -1.50%
06/25/2018 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 23 26.8
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.40% 0.53%
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 6.80% 6.79%
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 208.62
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 198.94
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 6.53%
06/26/2018 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 15 16
06/26/2018 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 128 128
06/26/2018 Conf. Board Present Situation 161.7
06/26/2018 Conf. Board Expectations 105.6
06/27/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 5.10%
06/27/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.10%
06/27/2018 Retail Inventories MoM 0.60% 0.50%
06/27/2018 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$69.0b -$68.2b -$67.3b
06/27/2018 Durable Goods Orders -0.90% -1.60%
06/27/2018 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.90%
06/27/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.40% 1.00%
06/27/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.30% 0.90%
06/27/2018 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.70% -1.30%
06/27/2018 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 0.40%
06/28/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 218k
06/28/2018 Continuing Claims 1718k 1723k
06/28/2018 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.20% 2.20%
06/28/2018 Personal Consumption 1.00% 1.00%
06/28/2018 GDP Price Index 1.90% 1.90%
06/28/2018 Core PCE QoQ 2.30%
06/28/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.5
06/28/2018 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 26 29
06/29/2018 Personal Income 0.40% 0.30%
06/29/2018 Personal Spending 0.40% 0.60%
06/29/2018 Real Personal Spending 0.20% 0.40%
06/29/2018 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
06/29/2018 PCE Deflator YoY 2.20% 2.00%
06/29/2018 PCE Core MoM 0.20% 0.20%
06/29/2018 PCE Core YoY 1.90% 1.80%
06/29/2018 Chicago Purchasing Manager 60 62.7
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.2 99.3
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 117.9
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations 87.4
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.90%
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
07/02/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 54.6
07/02/2018 Construction Spending MoM 0.60% 1.80%
07/02/2018 ISM Manufacturing 58.2 58.7
07/02/2018 ISM Employment 56.3
07/02/2018 ISM Prices Paid 75 79.5
07/02/2018 ISM New Orders 63.7
07/02/2018 Revisions: Construction Spending