Trade concerns are weighing on global risk markets again this morning and sparking a bid for Treasuries. All major overseas equity indices are lower (Nikkei -0.79%, Hang Seng -1.29%, Euro Stoxx -1.10%), and S&P 500 futures are currently down 13 points. The lead headline in financial markets today involves U.S. plans to restrict Chinese investments in American companies, which are expected to be announced later this week. Such restrictions have been known to be part of the Trump administration’s plans for quite some time, but the initial perception/reaction is an escalation of already heightened trade tensions between China and the United States. In a separate (but likely related) move, the Chinese government is cutting its required reserve ratio for banks by 50 bps, which is also contributing to today’s risk-off move in the markets. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the durable goods orders report on Wednesday and PCE on Friday (both for May). Multiple Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Randal Quarles speaking on bank regulation Wednesday.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/25/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.3 | -0.15 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| 06/25/2018 | New Home Sales | 667k | — | 662k | — |
| 06/25/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | -1.50% | — |
| 06/25/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 23 | — | 26.8 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.40% | — | 0.53% | — |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.80% | — | 6.79% | — |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | — | 208.62 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | — | 198.94 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.53% | — |
| 06/26/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | — | 16 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 128 | — | 128 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 161.7 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 105.6 | — |
| 06/27/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 5.10% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.60% | 0.50% |
| 06/27/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$69.0b | — | -$68.2b | -$67.3b |
| 06/27/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.90% | — | -1.60% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.70% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 218k | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1718k | — | 1723k | — |
| 06/28/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.20% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Personal Consumption | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | GDP Price Index | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 26 | — | 29 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 60 | — | 62.7 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.2 | — | 99.3 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 117.9 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.4 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.60% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.2 | — | 58.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Employment | — | — | 56.3 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | 75 | — | 79.5 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 63.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Revisions: Construction Spending |