Treasuries are little changed following a relatively quiet overnight session. The tone in risk markets is modestly improved today following comments late yesterday from White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. Navarro told CNBC that the restrictions on foreign investments scheduled to be released later this week won’t be as severe as the market is anticipating (primary catalyst for yesterday’s equity sell-off). His comments contradicted a more rigid statement from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin earlier, and it’s perhaps a sign of growing divisions within the administration regarding the current trade rhetoric. Harley-Davidson announced yesterday that it would not be passing along the cost of European Union retaliatory tariffs to consumers. The company said it would instead eat the cost of the 25% tariff, and the Milwaukee-based company said it may also shift some motorcycle production away from the U.S. to other countries. Regarding the latter, President Trump quickly tweeted a scathing attack on the company’s consideration of such actions.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/25/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.3-0.150.340.42
06/25/2018New Home Sales667k689k662k646k
06/25/2018New Home Sales MoM0.80%6.70%-1.50%-3.70%
06/25/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity24.936.526.8
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.20%0.53%0.40%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.80%6.56%6.79%6.73%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index210.17208.62208.5
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index200.86198.94198.86
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.41%6.53%6.49%
06/26/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1516
06/26/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128128
06/26/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.7
06/26/2018Conf. Board Expectations105.6
06/27/2018MBA Mortgage Applications5.10%
06/27/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.10%
06/27/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.50%
06/27/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$69.0b-$68.2b-$67.3b
06/27/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.00%-1.60%
06/27/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.90%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.00%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.90%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-1.30%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.40%
06/28/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k218k
06/28/2018Continuing Claims1718k1723k
06/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.20%
06/28/2018Personal Consumption1.00%1.00%
06/28/2018GDP Price Index1.90%1.90%
06/28/2018Core PCE QoQ2.30%
06/28/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.5
06/28/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2629
06/29/2018Personal Income0.40%0.30%
06/29/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.60%
06/29/2018Real Personal Spending0.20%0.40%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.00%
06/29/2018PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Core YoY1.90%1.80%
06/29/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager6062.7
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9999.3
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions117.9
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.4
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.40%1.80%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.258.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment56.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid7579.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018Factory Orders-0.20%-0.80%
07/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
07/03/2018Durable Goods Orders
07/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation
07/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
07/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
07/03/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales
07/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.95m16.81m