The curve is lower this morning, with the 10-year hitting a 4 week low of 2.85; as concerns around China’s financial system weighed on investor sentiment. Additionally, the recent news that the Trump administration has decided against employing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 which would have limited Chinese investment, has investors uncertain regarding the path that the current administration intends to take with China; further spooking markets.

On the data front, durable goods orders fell 0.6% which was a smaller decline than the expected 1.0%. Business investment, which uses non-military capital goods orders excluding aircraft, fell 0.2% which was better than the expectation of a 0.5% decline. While May saw a decline, the longer term trend has been positive with core capital goods orders up 6.8% over the past year.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
06/25/2018 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.3 -0.15 0.34 0.42
06/25/2018 New Home Sales 667k 689k 662k 646k
06/25/2018 New Home Sales MoM 0.80% 6.70% -1.50% -3.70%
06/25/2018 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 24.9 36.5 26.8
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.40% 0.20% 0.53% 0.40%
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 6.80% 6.56% 6.79% 6.73%
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 210.17 208.62 208.5
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 200.86 198.94 198.86
06/26/2018 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 6.41% 6.53% 6.49%
06/26/2018 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 15 20 16
06/26/2018 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 128 126.4 128 128.8
06/26/2018 Conf. Board Present Situation 161.1 161.7 161.2
06/26/2018 Conf. Board Expectations 103.2 105.6 107.2
06/27/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.90% 5.10%
06/27/2018 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$69.0b -$64.8b -$68.2b -$67.3b
06/27/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.50% 0.10%
06/27/2018 Retail Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.60% 0.50%
06/27/2018 Durable Goods Orders -1.00% -0.60% -1.60% -1.00%
06/27/2018 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% -0.30% 0.90% 1.90%
06/27/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% -0.20% 1.00% 2.30%
06/27/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.30% -0.10% 0.90% 1.00%
06/27/2018 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% -1.30%
06/27/2018 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 0.40%
06/28/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 218k
06/28/2018 Continuing Claims 1718k 1723k
06/28/2018 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.20% 2.20%
06/28/2018 Personal Consumption 1.00% 1.00%
06/28/2018 GDP Price Index 1.90% 1.90%
06/28/2018 Core PCE QoQ 2.30%
06/28/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.5
06/28/2018 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 26 29
06/29/2018 Personal Income 0.40% 0.30%
06/29/2018 Personal Spending 0.40% 0.60%
06/29/2018 Real Personal Spending 0.20% 0.40%
06/29/2018 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
06/29/2018 PCE Deflator YoY 2.20% 2.00%
06/29/2018 PCE Core MoM 0.20% 0.20%
06/29/2018 PCE Core YoY 1.90% 1.80%
06/29/2018 Chicago Purchasing Manager 60 62.7
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99 99.3
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 117.9
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations 87.4
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.90%
06/29/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
07/02/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 54.6
07/02/2018 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% 1.80%
07/02/2018 ISM Manufacturing 58.1 58.7
07/02/2018 ISM Employment 56.3
07/02/2018 ISM Prices Paid 79.5
07/02/2018 ISM New Orders 63.7
07/02/2018 Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018 Factory Orders -0.20% -0.80%
07/03/2018 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.40%
07/03/2018 Durable Goods Orders -0.60%
07/03/2018 Durables Ex Transportation -0.30%
07/03/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.20%
07/03/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.10%
07/03/2018 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales
07/03/2018 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.95m 16.81m
07/04/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.90%