The curve is lower this morning, with the 10-year hitting a 4 week low of 2.85; as concerns around China’s financial system weighed on investor sentiment. Additionally, the recent news that the Trump administration has decided against employing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 which would have limited Chinese investment, has investors uncertain regarding the path that the current administration intends to take with China; further spooking markets.

On the data front, durable goods orders fell 0.6% which was a smaller decline than the expected 1.0%. Business investment, which uses non-military capital goods orders excluding aircraft, fell 0.2% which was better than the expectation of a 0.5% decline. While May saw a decline, the longer term trend has been positive with core capital goods orders up 6.8% over the past year.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/25/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.3-0.150.340.42
06/25/2018New Home Sales667k689k662k646k
06/25/2018New Home Sales MoM0.80%6.70%-1.50%-3.70%
06/25/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity24.936.526.8
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.20%0.53%0.40%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.80%6.56%6.79%6.73%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index210.17208.62208.5
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index200.86198.94198.86
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.41%6.53%6.49%
06/26/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index152016
06/26/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128126.4128128.8
06/26/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.1161.7161.2
06/26/2018Conf. Board Expectations103.2105.6107.2
06/27/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%5.10%
06/27/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$69.0b-$64.8b-$68.2b-$67.3b
06/27/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.50%0.10%
06/27/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.60%0.50%
06/27/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.00%-0.60%-1.60%-1.00%
06/27/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.30%0.90%1.90%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.20%1.00%2.30%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%-0.10%0.90%1.00%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-1.30%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.40%
06/28/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k218k
06/28/2018Continuing Claims1718k1723k
06/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.20%
06/28/2018Personal Consumption1.00%1.00%
06/28/2018GDP Price Index1.90%1.90%
06/28/2018Core PCE QoQ2.30%
06/28/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.5
06/28/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2629
06/29/2018Personal Income0.40%0.30%
06/29/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.60%
06/29/2018Real Personal Spending0.20%0.40%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.00%
06/29/2018PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Core YoY1.90%1.80%
06/29/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager6062.7
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9999.3
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions117.9
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.4
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.40%1.80%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.158.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment56.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid79.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018Factory Orders-0.20%-0.80%
07/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
07/03/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.60%
07/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
07/03/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales
07/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.95m16.81m
07/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%