The curve is lower this morning, with the 10-year hitting a 4 week low of 2.85; as concerns around China’s financial system weighed on investor sentiment. Additionally, the recent news that the Trump administration has decided against employing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 which would have limited Chinese investment, has investors uncertain regarding the path that the current administration intends to take with China; further spooking markets.
On the data front, durable goods orders fell 0.6% which was a smaller decline than the expected 1.0%. Business investment, which uses non-military capital goods orders excluding aircraft, fell 0.2% which was better than the expectation of a 0.5% decline. While May saw a decline, the longer term trend has been positive with core capital goods orders up 6.8% over the past year.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/25/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.3 | -0.15 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| 06/25/2018 | New Home Sales | 667k | 689k | 662k | 646k |
| 06/25/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.80% | 6.70% | -1.50% | -3.70% |
| 06/25/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 24.9 | 36.5 | 26.8 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.53% | 0.40% |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.80% | 6.56% | 6.79% | 6.73% |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 210.17 | 208.62 | 208.5 |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 200.86 | 198.94 | 198.86 |
| 06/26/2018 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.41% | 6.53% | 6.49% |
| 06/26/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | 20 | 16 | — |
| 06/26/2018 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 128 | 126.4 | 128 | 128.8 |
| 06/26/2018 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 161.1 | 161.7 | 161.2 |
| 06/26/2018 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 103.2 | 105.6 | 107.2 |
| 06/27/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.90% | 5.10% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$69.0b | -$64.8b | -$68.2b | -$67.3b |
| 06/27/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | 0.10% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
| 06/27/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.00% | -0.60% | -1.60% | -1.00% |
| 06/27/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | -0.30% | 0.90% | 1.90% |
| 06/27/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | -0.20% | 1.00% | 2.30% |
| 06/27/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.90% | 1.00% |
| 06/27/2018 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 06/27/2018 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 218k | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1718k | — | 1723k | — |
| 06/28/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.20% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Personal Consumption | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | GDP Price Index | 1.90% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 06/28/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 26 | — | 29 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Core MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | PCE Core YoY | 1.90% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 60 | — | 62.7 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99 | — | 99.3 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 117.9 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.4 | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 06/29/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.1 | — | 58.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Employment | — | — | 56.3 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 79.5 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 63.7 | — |
| 07/02/2018 | Revisions: Construction Spending | ||||
| 07/03/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.20% | — | -0.80% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | -0.60% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | — | — | — | — |
| 07/03/2018 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.95m | — | 16.81m | — |
| 07/04/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.90% | — |