June 28, 2021 Headlines

Better buying overnight in overseas markets is fueling a modest rally in Treasuries this morning, and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the week. The highlight of this week’s economic calendar is the June jobs report to be released on Friday. According to the median Bloomberg survey estimate, payrolls are expected to have added 700,000 jobs, and the headline unemployment rate is expected to fall 10 bps to 5.7%. The schedule of Fed speakers is a bit lighter for this week, but we will hear from three leaders today, including Vice Chair Quarles and John Williams (NY Fed).   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
06/28/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity32.534.9
06/29/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.60%1.40%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.80%1.60%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA14.85%13.27%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA13.19%
06/29/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence119117.2
06/29/21Conf. Board Present Situation144.3
06/29/21Conf. Board Expectations99.1
06/30/21MBA Mortgage Applications2.10%
06/30/21ADP Employment Change550k978k
06/30/21MNI Chicago PMI7075.2
06/30/21Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%-4.40%
06/30/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY53.50%
07/01/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-93.80%
07/01/21Initial Jobless Claims389k411k
07/01/21Continuing Claims3335k3390k
07/01/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.9
07/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI62.662.6
07/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.20%
07/01/21ISM Manufacturing6161.2
07/01/21ISM Prices Paid8688
07/01/21ISM New Orders67
07/01/21ISM Employment50.9
07/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m16.99m
07/02/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls700k559k
07/02/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision27k
07/02/21Change in Private Payrolls600k492k
07/02/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls25k23k
07/02/21Unemployment Rate5.60%5.80%
07/02/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%2.00%
07/02/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.934.9
07/02/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.50%
07/02/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.60%
07/02/21Underemployment Rate10.20%
07/02/21Trade Balance-$71.3b-$68.9b
07/02/21Factory Orders1.50%-0.60%
07/02/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.50%
07/02/21Durable Goods Orders2.30%
07/02/21Durables Ex Transportation0.30%
07/02/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
07/02/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%

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