June 28, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower this morning after inflation reports from both Australia and Italy surprised to the downside. For Australia, consumer prices hit a 13-month low in May at 5.6% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y in April. The Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with the 2-year/10-year spread currently at -101 basis points (bps), just above the cycle low of -109 bps reached on March 8. The 3-month/10-year spread is currently -160 bps versus the cycle low of 190 bps on May 3. In housing news, the MBA mortgage applications index rose 3% last week, with both refinance and new purchase applications rising by the same amount over the week. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 2 bps to 6.75%, 16 bps below the YTD high of 6.91% for the week ended May 26.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/28/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 3.00% 0.50%
6/28/23 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$93.7b -$91.1b -$96.8b -$97.1b
6/28/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.30%
6/28/23 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.80% 0.20% 0.30%
6/29/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.40% 1.30%
6/29/23 Personal Consumption 3.80% 3.80%
6/29/23 GDP Price Index 4.20% 4.20%
6/29/23 Core PCE QoQ 5.00% 5.00%
6/29/23 Initial Jobless Claims 265k 264k
6/29/23 Continuing Claims 1765k 1759k
6/29/23 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% 0.00%
6/29/23 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -20.50% -22.60%
6/30/23 Personal Income 0.30% 0.40%
6/30/23 Personal Spending 0.20% 0.80%
6/30/23 Real Personal Spending 0.10% 0.50%
6/30/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.40%
6/30/23 PCE Deflator YoY 3.80% 4.40%
6/30/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40%
6/30/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.70% 4.70%
6/30/23 MNI Chicago PMI 43.9 40.4
6/30/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63.9 63.9
6/30/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 68 68
6/30/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 61.3 61.3
6/30/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.30%
6/30/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%
7/3/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 46.3
7/3/23 Construction Spending MoM 0.50% 1.20%
7/3/23 ISM Manufacturing 47.3 46.9
7/3/23 ISM Prices Paid 44.2
7/3/23 ISM Employment 51.4
7/3/23 ISM New Orders 42.6
7/3/23 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.25m 15.05m
7/5/23 Factory Orders -0.10% 0.40%
7/5/23 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.20%
7/5/23 Durable Goods Orders 1.70%
7/5/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.60%
7/5/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70%
7/5/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20%
7/5/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes




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