June 28, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower this morning after inflation reports from both Australia and Italy surprised to the downside. For Australia, consumer prices hit a 13-month low in May at 5.6% y/y, down from 6.8% y/y in April. The Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with the 2-year/10-year spread currently at -101 basis points (bps), just above the cycle low of -109 bps reached on March 8. The 3-month/10-year spread is currently -160 bps versus the cycle low of 190 bps on May 3. In housing news, the MBA mortgage applications index rose 3% last week, with both refinance and new purchase applications rising by the same amount over the week. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 2 bps to 6.75%, 16 bps below the YTD high of 6.91% for the week ended May 26.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/28/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 3.00% 0.50%
6/28/23 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$93.7b -$91.1b -$96.8b -$97.1b
6/28/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% -0.30%
6/28/23 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.80% 0.20% 0.30%
6/29/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.40% 1.30%
6/29/23 Personal Consumption 3.80% 3.80%
6/29/23 GDP Price Index 4.20% 4.20%
6/29/23 Core PCE QoQ 5.00% 5.00%
6/29/23 Initial Jobless Claims 265k 264k
6/29/23 Continuing Claims 1765k 1759k
6/29/23 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% 0.00%
6/29/23 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -20.50% -22.60%
6/30/23 Personal Income 0.30% 0.40%
6/30/23 Personal Spending 0.20% 0.80%
6/30/23 Real Personal Spending 0.10% 0.50%
6/30/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.40%
6/30/23 PCE Deflator YoY 3.80% 4.40%
6/30/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40%
6/30/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.70% 4.70%
6/30/23 MNI Chicago PMI 43.9 40.4
6/30/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63.9 63.9
6/30/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 68 68
6/30/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 61.3 61.3
6/30/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.30%
6/30/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%
7/3/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 46.3
7/3/23 Construction Spending MoM 0.50% 1.20%
7/3/23 ISM Manufacturing 47.3 46.9
7/3/23 ISM Prices Paid 44.2
7/3/23 ISM Employment 51.4
7/3/23 ISM New Orders 42.6
7/3/23 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.25m 15.05m
7/5/23 Factory Orders -0.10% 0.40%
7/5/23 Factory Orders Ex Trans -0.20%
7/5/23 Durable Goods Orders 1.70%
7/5/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.60%
7/5/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.70%
7/5/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20%
7/5/23 FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.