A better tone in risk markets overnight is pushing Treasury yields slightly higher this morning. Equity markets are responding positively to a few different items, including 1) no negative trade headlines and 2) news that the EU was able to reach a deal on migration. S&P 500 futures are currently up 10 points. On the inflation front, core PCE rose 0.2% m/m and 2% y/y in May. The monthly increase was in line with expectations, but the year-over-year metric unexpectedly rose to a 6-year high and was up 20 bps from April. Personal spending was weaker than expected in May (unchanged m/m on an inflation-adjusted basis), pushing the personal savings rate up 20 bps to 3.2%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/25/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.3-0.150.340.42
06/25/2018New Home Sales667k689k662k646k
06/25/2018New Home Sales MoM0.80%6.70%-1.50%-3.70%
06/25/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity24.936.526.8
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.20%0.53%0.40%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.80%6.56%6.79%6.73%
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index210.17208.62208.5
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index200.86198.94198.86
06/26/2018S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.41%6.53%6.49%
06/26/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index152016
06/26/2018Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128126.4128128.8
06/26/2018Conf. Board Present Situation161.1161.7161.2
06/26/2018Conf. Board Expectations103.2105.6107.2
06/27/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%5.10%
06/27/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$69.0b-$64.8b-$68.2b-$67.3b
06/27/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.50%0.10%
06/27/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.60%0.50%
06/27/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.00%-0.60%-1.60%-1.00%
06/27/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.30%0.90%1.90%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.20%1.00%2.30%
06/27/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%-0.10%0.90%1.00%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-0.50%-1.30%
06/27/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.80%0.40%0.30%
06/28/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k227k218k
06/28/2018Continuing Claims1717k1705k1723k1726k
06/28/2018GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.00%2.20%
06/28/2018Personal Consumption1.00%0.90%1.00%
06/28/2018GDP Price Index1.90%2.20%1.90%
06/28/2018Core PCE QoQ2.30%2.30%
06/28/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.356.5
06/28/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity262829
06/29/2018Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.30%0.20%
06/29/2018Personal Spending0.40%0.20%0.60%0.50%
06/29/2018Real Personal Spending0.20%0.00%0.40%0.30%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.30%2.00%
06/29/2018PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
06/29/2018PCE Core YoY1.90%2.00%1.80%
06/29/2018Chicago Purchasing Manager6062.7
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9999.3
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions117.9
06/29/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.4
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
06/29/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
07/02/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.854.6
07/02/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%1.80%
07/02/2018ISM Manufacturing58.258.7
07/02/2018ISM Employment56.3
07/02/2018ISM Prices Paid74.379.5
07/02/2018ISM New Orders63.7
07/02/2018Revisions: Construction Spending
07/03/2018Factory Orders0.00%-0.80%
07/03/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
07/03/2018Durable Goods Orders-0.60%
07/03/2018Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
07/03/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
07/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m16.81m
07/04/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%
07/05/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY-4.80%
07/05/2018ADP Employment Change190k178k
07/05/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k227k
07/05/2018Continuing Claims1720k1705k
07/05/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.3
07/05/2018Markit US Services PMI56.556.5
07/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI56
07/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.258.6
07/05/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
07/06/2018Trade Balance-$44.0b-$46.2b
07/06/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls200k223k
07/06/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision15k
07/06/2018Change in Private Payrolls185k218k
07/06/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls13k18k
07/06/2018Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
07/06/2018Underemployment Rate7.60%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
07/06/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.70%
07/06/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
07/06/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%