June 3, 2022 Headlines

Today’s job report came in better than expected with employers adding 390,000 jobs in May. The median forecast called for an increase of 318,000. The news pushed the Treasury curve higher and steeper, with front-end yields up 5-6 bps and long-end yields up 7-8 bps. Treasuries have since retraced some of that move and are 4-5 bps higher across the curve.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%. May saw average hourly earnings rise by 0.3% and by 5.2% y/y. The slowdown in wage growth, April was + 5.5% y/y, and better than expected increase in payrolls suggest that the market may see a pullback in inflationary pressure.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
05/31/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	2.00%	1.50%	2.10%	1.90%
05/31/22	House Price Purchase Index QoQ	—	4.60%	3.30%	3.60%
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.90%	2.42%	2.39%	—
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.00%	21.17%	20.20%	20.26%
05/31/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	20.55%	19.80%	20.01%
05/31/22	MNI Chicago PMI	55	60.3	56.4	—
05/31/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	103.6	106.4	107.3	108.6
05/31/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	149.6	152.6	152.9
05/31/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	77.5	77.2	79
05/31/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	1.5	-7.3	1.1	—
06/01/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.30%	-1.20%	—
06/01/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	57	57.5	—
06/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.50%	0.20%	0.10%	0.30%
06/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	54.5	56.1	55.4	—
06/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	81	82.2	84.6	—
06/01/22	ISM New Orders	52.9	55.1	53.5	—
06/01/22	ISM Employment	52	49.6	50.9	—
06/01/22	JOLTS Job Openings	11350k	11400k	11549k	11855k
06/01/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
06/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.70m	12.68m	14.29m	—
06/02/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	-15.80%	6.00%	—
06/02/22	ADP Employment Change	300k	128k	247k	202k
06/02/22	Nonfarm Productivity	-7.50%	-7.30%	-7.50%	—
06/02/22	Unit Labor Costs	11.60%	12.60%	11.60%	—
06/02/22	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	200k	210k	211k
06/02/22	Continuing Claims	1340k	1309k	1346k	1343k
06/02/22	Factory Orders	0.70%	0.30%	2.20%	1.80%
06/02/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	0.30%	2.50%	2.20%
06/02/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%	—
06/02/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%	—
06/02/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.40%	0.40%	0.30%	—
06/02/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.80%	0.80%	—
06/03/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	-22k	—	—
06/03/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	318k	390k	428k	436k
06/03/22	Change in Private Payrolls	301k	333k	406k	405k
06/03/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	39k	18k	55k	61k
06/03/22	Unemployment Rate	3.50%	3.60%	3.60%	—
06/03/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.20%	5.20%	5.50%	—
06/03/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	0.30%	0.30%	—
06/03/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	34.6	34.6	—
06/03/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.30%	62.30%	62.20%	—
06/03/22	Underemployment Rate	—	7.10%	7.00%	—
06/03/22	S&P Global US Services PMI	53.5	53.4	53.5	—
06/03/22	S&P Global US Composite PMI	53.8	53.6	53.8	—
06/03/22	ISM Services Index	56.5	—	57.1	—

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