June 30, 2021 Headlines

A combination of month-end rebalancing and delta variant concerns are pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter on the last trading day of the quarter. The latter is weighing on European equities, and U.S. futures are slightly lower as well. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.9% last week, driven by a 4.8% decline in purchase applications and an 8.2% decline in refinance applications. The MBA’s survey mortgage rates were little changed versus the prior week. The ADP employment report showed 692,000 jobs added to private payrolls in June versus expectations of a 600,000 increase.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

06/28/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity32.531.134.9
06/29/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.60%1.80%1.40%1.60%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.80%1.62%1.60%1.59%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA14.70%14.88%13.27%13.36%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA14.59%13.19%13.32%
06/29/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence119127.3117.2120
06/29/21Conf. Board Present Situation157.7144.3148.7
06/29/21Conf. Board Expectations10799.1100.9
06/30/21MBA Mortgage Applications-6.90%2.10%
06/30/21ADP Employment Change600k692k978k886k
06/30/21MNI Chicago PMI7075.2
06/30/21Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%-4.40%
06/30/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY53.50%
07/01/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-93.80%
07/01/21Initial Jobless Claims387k411k
07/01/21Continuing Claims3340k3390k
07/01/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.9
07/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI62.662.6
07/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.20%
07/01/21ISM Manufacturing6161.2
07/01/21ISM Prices Paid8688
07/01/21ISM New Orders67
07/01/21ISM Employment50.9
07/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.50m16.99m
07/02/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls711k559k
07/02/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision27k
07/02/21Change in Private Payrolls620k492k
07/02/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls25k23k
07/02/21Unemployment Rate5.60%5.80%
07/02/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%2.00%
07/02/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.934.9
07/02/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.50%
07/02/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.60%
07/02/21Underemployment Rate10.20%
07/02/21Trade Balance-$71.4b-$68.9b
07/02/21Factory Orders1.60%-0.60%
07/02/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.50%
07/02/21Durable Goods Orders2.30%
07/02/21Durables Ex Transportation0.30%
07/02/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
07/02/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%

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