June 30, 2021 Headlines

A combination of month-end rebalancing and delta variant concerns are pushing Treasury yields lower and flatter on the last trading day of the quarter. The latter is weighing on European equities, and U.S. futures are slightly lower as well. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.9% last week, driven by a 4.8% decline in purchase applications and an 8.2% decline in refinance applications. The MBA’s survey mortgage rates were little changed versus the prior week. The ADP employment report showed 692,000 jobs added to private payrolls in June versus expectations of a 600,000 increase.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/28/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 32.5 31.1 34.9 —
06/29/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.60% 1.80% 1.40% 1.60%
06/29/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.80% 1.62% 1.60% 1.59%
06/29/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 14.70% 14.88% 13.27% 13.36%
06/29/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 14.59% 13.19% 13.32%
06/29/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 119 127.3 117.2 120
06/29/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 157.7 144.3 148.7
06/29/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 107 99.1 100.9
06/30/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -6.90% 2.10% —
06/30/21 ADP Employment Change 600k 692k 978k 886k
06/30/21 MNI Chicago PMI 70 — 75.2 —
06/30/21 Pending Home Sales MoM -1.00% — -4.40% —
06/30/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — — 53.50% —
07/01/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — -93.80% —
07/01/21 Initial Jobless Claims 387k — 411k —
07/01/21 Continuing Claims 3340k — 3390k —
07/01/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 56.9 —
07/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 62.6 — 62.6 —
07/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% — 0.20% —
07/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 61 — 61.2 —
07/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 86 — 88 —
07/01/21 ISM New Orders — — 67 —
07/01/21 ISM Employment — — 50.9 —
07/01/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.50m — 16.99m —
07/02/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 711k — 559k —
07/02/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — 27k —
07/02/21 Change in Private Payrolls 620k — 492k —
07/02/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 25k — 23k —
07/02/21 Unemployment Rate 5.60% — 5.80% —
07/02/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.60% — 2.00% —
07/02/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 — 34.9 —
07/02/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% — 0.50% —
07/02/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.70% — 61.60% —
07/02/21 Underemployment Rate — — 10.20% —
07/02/21 Trade Balance -$71.4b — -$68.9b —
07/02/21 Factory Orders 1.60% — -0.60% —
07/02/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 0.50% —
07/02/21 Durable Goods Orders — — 2.30% —
07/02/21 Durables Ex Transportation — — 0.30% —
07/02/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air — — -0.10% —
07/02/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.90% —

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