June 30, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields fell after spending data came in lower than expected with the front-end and belly 9 to 10 bps lower. Personal spending data showed a 0.2% increase in May, half of the median forecast, and April’s number was revised lower to 0.6% from 0.9%. The decline in consumer spending suggests that the Fed’s tightening is taking hold but also highlights the difficulty of achieving a soft landing.

Both headline and core PCE price indices rose less than expected in May. Headline was up 0.6% vs 0.7% expected while core was up 0.3% vs 0.4% expected. While May showed inflation moderating somewhat, it’s unlikely to have much impact on the Fed’s decision making at the July meeting.

As a reminder, the bond market will be closing early tomorrow at 2 PM EDT ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Monday.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
06/27/22	Durable Goods Orders	0.10%	0.70%	0.50%	0.40%
06/27/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	0.70%	0.40%	0.20%
06/27/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	0.50%	0.40%	0.30%
06/27/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	0.80%	0.80%	—
06/27/22	Pending Home Sales MoM	-4.00%	0.70%	-3.90%	-4.00%
06/27/22	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	-12.00%	-11.50%	—
06/27/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-6.5	-17.7	-7.3	—
06/28/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$104.8b	-$104.3b	-$105.9b	-$106.7b
06/28/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.10%	2.00%	2.20%	2.30%
06/28/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.80%	1.10%	0.70%	—
06/28/22	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.40%	1.60%	1.50%	1.60%
06/28/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.90%	1.77%	2.42%	2.41%
06/28/22	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	21.05%	21.23%	21.17%	21.15%
06/28/22	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	20.39%	20.55%	20.64%
06/28/22	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-7	-11	-9	—
06/28/22	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	100	98.7	106.4	103.2
06/28/22	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	147.1	149.6	147.4
06/28/22	Conf. Board Expectations	—	66.4	77.5	73.7
06/29/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.70%	4.20%	—
06/29/22	GDP Annualized QoQ	-1.50%	-1.60%	-1.50%	—
06/29/22	Personal Consumption	3.10%	1.80%	3.10%	—
06/29/22	GDP Price Index	8.10%	8.20%	8.10%	—
06/29/22	Core PCE QoQ	5.10%	5.20%	5.10%	—
06/30/22	Personal Income	0.50%	0.50%	0.40%	0.50%
06/30/22	Personal Spending	0.40%	0.20%	0.90%	0.60%
06/30/22	Real Personal Spending	-0.30%	-0.40%	0.70%	0.30%
06/30/22	PCE Deflator MoM	0.70%	0.60%	0.20%	—
06/30/22	PCE Deflator YoY	6.40%	6.30%	6.30%	—
06/30/22	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.40%	0.30%	0.30%	—
06/30/22	PCE Core Deflator YoY	4.80%	4.70%	4.90%	—
06/30/22	Initial Jobless Claims	230k	231k	229k	233k
06/30/22	Continuing Claims	1318k	1328k	1315k	1331k
06/30/22	MNI Chicago PMI	58	—	60.3	—
07/01/22	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	52.4	—	52.4	—
07/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	—	0.20%	—
07/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	54.5	—	56.1	—
07/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	79.9	—	82.2	—
07/01/22	ISM New Orders	52	—	55.1	—
07/01/22	ISM Employment	50	—	49.6	—
07/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.30m	—	12.68m	—

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