June 4, 2021 Headlines

The May jobs report was softer than expected for a second consecutive month. Nonfarm payrolls added 559,000 jobs in May versus expectations of a 675,000 increase, and the prior two months were revised higher by just 27,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate fell more than expected to 5.8%, but the outsized decline was due in large part to a contraction in the official labor pool, which pushed the labor participation rate down to 61.6%. Wage growth was higher than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.5% m/m (0.2% expected).  Treasuries are unchanged to slightly higher (price) in the immediate aftermath of the release.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 61.5 62.1 61.5 —
06/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.50% 0.20% 0.20% 1.00%
06/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 61 61.2 60.7 —
06/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 89.5 88 89.6 —
06/01/21 ISM New Orders 66 67 64.3 —
06/01/21 ISM Employment 54.6 50.9 55.1 —
06/01/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 36.3 34.9 37.3 —
06/02/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -4.00% -4.20% —
06/02/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
06/02/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.30m 16.99m 18.51m —
06/03/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — -93.80% -96.60% —
06/03/21 ADP Employment Change 650k 978k 742k 654k
06/03/21 Nonfarm Productivity 5.50% 5.40% 5.40% —
06/03/21 Unit Labor Costs -0.40% 1.70% -0.30% —
06/03/21 Initial Jobless Claims 387k 385k 406k 405k
06/03/21 Continuing Claims 3614k 3771k 3642k 3602k
06/03/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — 55.6 53.8 —
06/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 70.1 70.4 70.1 —
06/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — 68.7 68.1 —
06/03/21 ISM Services Index 63.2 64 62.7 —
06/04/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 675k 559k 266k 278k
06/04/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — 27k — —
06/04/21 Change in Private Payrolls 610k 492k 218k 219k
06/04/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 25k 23k -18k -32k
06/04/21 Unemployment Rate 5.90% 5.80% 6.10% —
06/04/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 1.60% 2.00% 0.30% 0.40%
06/04/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 34.9 35 34.9
06/04/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.50% 0.70% —
06/04/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.80% 61.60% 61.70% —
06/04/21 Underemployment Rate — 10.20% 10.40% —
06/04/21 Factory Orders -0.20% — 1.10% —
06/04/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 1.70% —
06/04/21 Durable Goods Orders -1.30% — -1.30% —
06/04/21 Durables Ex Transportation 1.00% — 1.00% —
06/04/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 2.30% — 2.30% —
06/04/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.90% —

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.