The May jobs report was softer than expected for a second consecutive month. Nonfarm payrolls added 559,000 jobs in May versus expectations of a 675,000 increase, and the prior two months were revised higher by just 27,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate fell more than expected to 5.8%, but the outsized decline was due in large part to a contraction in the official labor pool, which pushed the labor participation rate down to 61.6%. Wage growth was higher than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.5% m/m (0.2% expected). Treasuries are unchanged to slightly higher (price) in the immediate aftermath of the release.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
06/01/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 61.5 | 62.1 | 61.5 | — |
06/01/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 1.00% |
06/01/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 61 | 61.2 | 60.7 | — |
06/01/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 89.5 | 88 | 89.6 | — |
06/01/21 | ISM New Orders | 66 | 67 | 64.3 | — |
06/01/21 | ISM Employment | 54.6 | 50.9 | 55.1 | — |
06/01/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 36.3 | 34.9 | 37.3 | — |
06/02/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.00% | -4.20% | — |
06/02/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
06/02/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.30m | 16.99m | 18.51m | — |
06/03/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -93.80% | -96.60% | — |
06/03/21 | ADP Employment Change | 650k | 978k | 742k | 654k |
06/03/21 | Nonfarm Productivity | 5.50% | 5.40% | 5.40% | — |
06/03/21 | Unit Labor Costs | -0.40% | 1.70% | -0.30% | — |
06/03/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 387k | 385k | 406k | 405k |
06/03/21 | Continuing Claims | 3614k | 3771k | 3642k | 3602k |
06/03/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | 55.6 | 53.8 | — |
06/03/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 70.1 | 70.4 | 70.1 | — |
06/03/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 68.7 | 68.1 | — |
06/03/21 | ISM Services Index | 63.2 | 64 | 62.7 | — |
06/04/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 675k | 559k | 266k | 278k |
06/04/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 27k | — | — |
06/04/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 610k | 492k | 218k | 219k |
06/04/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 25k | 23k | -18k | -32k |
06/04/21 | Unemployment Rate | 5.90% | 5.80% | 6.10% | — |
06/04/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 1.60% | 2.00% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
06/04/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.9 | 34.9 | 35 | 34.9 |
06/04/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | 0.70% | — |
06/04/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.80% | 61.60% | 61.70% | — |
06/04/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | 10.20% | 10.40% | — |
06/04/21 | Factory Orders | -0.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
06/04/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.70% | — |
06/04/21 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.30% | — | -1.30% | — |
06/04/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
06/04/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
06/04/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
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