Treasury prices are higher this morning on weaker Eurozone data and further weakness in Italian bonds. Additionally, oil prices are lower on a Bloomberg report that the U.S. has quietly reached out to Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers requesting an increase in oil production of around 1 million barrels per day. Major global equity indices are mostly higher today (albeit modestly), and S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged at the moment. Economists are generally downplaying the economic impact of U.S. steel tariffs (and retaliatory measures from trading partners), but at the same time, many acknowledge the risk that these measures could just be the tip of the iceberg. An escalation of further tariffs and retaliatory actions would likely spark greater anxiety in financial markets regarding inflation and growth implications. As such, Senator Bob Corker is preparing legislation that would subject future tariffs to Congressional approval in an effort to curb the White House’s authority over trade matters. While the effort has support of several Republican lawmakers, others have acknowledged the challenges of pushing a bill that the president opposes during an election year.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/04/2018Factory Orders-0.50%-0.80%1.60%1.70%
06/04/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.30%0.50%
06/04/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.60%-1.70%
06/04/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.90%0.90%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.00%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%0.80%
06/05/2018Markit US Services PMI55.755.7
06/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.7
06/05/2018JOLTS Job Openings63506550
06/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite57.656.8
06/06/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.90%
06/06/2018Revisions: Trade Balance
06/06/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.60%0.70%
06/06/2018Unit Labor Costs2.80%2.70%
06/06/2018Trade Balance-$49.0b-$49.0b
06/07/2018Initial Jobless Claims221k221k
06/07/2018Continuing Claims1740k1726k
06/07/2018Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
06/07/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort55.2
06/07/2018Household Change in Net Worth$2076b
06/07/2018Consumer Credit$14.000b$11.622b
06/08/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%
06/08/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%0.00%
06/12/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism104.8
06/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
06/12/2018CPI YoY2.50%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%
06/12/2018CPI Index NSA250.546
06/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.45
06/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%
06/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%
06/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement$214.3b