The risk tone is modestly better today, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve. Contributing to today’s market activity were positive headlines on the trade front and “hawkish” comments from ECB leaders. On the trade front, reports suggest progress on negotiations with China, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is expected to ask President Trump to exempt Canada from the recently declared steel/aluminum tariffs. Regarding global monetary policy, multiple ECB leaders confirmed that they will be discussing a wind-down of the current QE program at their meeting next week. The central bank has been widely expected to end the current program when it expires in September; however, doubts arose amid the recent market volatility (Italy/Spain political concerns) and weaker data trend, particularly relative to expectations. Regarding the latter, these officials opined that the recent weakness in the data trend is transitory and that inflation pressures are gradually building.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/04/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.50% | -0.80% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
| 06/04/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 06/04/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | -1.60% | -1.70% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.90% | 0.90% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.00% | 1.00% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.90% | 0.80% | — |
| 06/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.7 | 56.8 | 55.7 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 56.6 | 55.7 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6350 | 6698 | 6550 | 6633 |
| 06/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 57.7 | 58.6 | 56.8 | — |
| 06/06/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.10% | -2.90% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Revisions: Trade Balance | ||||
| 06/06/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.70% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.80% | 2.90% | 2.70% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Trade Balance | -$49.0b | -$46.2b | -$49.0b | -$47.2b |
| 06/07/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 221k | — | 221k | — |
| 06/07/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1738k | — | 1726k | — |
| 06/07/2018 | Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 06/07/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 55.2 | — |
| 06/07/2018 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2076b | — |
| 06/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | — | $11.622b | — |
| 06/08/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/08/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 104.8 | — | 104.8 | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 250.546 | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.45 | — |
| 06/12/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | $214.3b | — |
| 06/13/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.10% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.00% | — | 1.75% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.50% | — |