The risk tone is modestly better today, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve. Contributing to today’s market activity were positive headlines on the trade front and “hawkish” comments from ECB leaders. On the trade front, reports suggest progress on negotiations with China, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is expected to ask President Trump to exempt Canada from the recently declared steel/aluminum tariffs. Regarding global monetary policy, multiple ECB leaders confirmed that they will be discussing a wind-down of the current QE program at their meeting next week. The central bank has been widely expected to end the current program when it expires in September; however, doubts arose amid the recent market volatility (Italy/Spain political concerns) and weaker data trend, particularly relative to expectations. Regarding the latter, these officials opined that the recent weakness in the data trend is transitory and that inflation pressures are gradually building.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
06/04/2018 Factory Orders -0.50% -0.80% 1.60% 1.70%
06/04/2018 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.40% 0.30% 0.50%
06/04/2018 Durable Goods Orders -1.60% -1.70%
06/04/2018 Durables Ex Transportation 0.90% 0.90%
06/04/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.00% 1.00%
06/04/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.90% 0.80%
06/05/2018 Markit US Services PMI 55.7 56.8 55.7
06/05/2018 Markit US Composite PMI 56.6 55.7
06/05/2018 JOLTS Job Openings 6350 6698 6550 6633
06/05/2018 ISM Non-Manf. Composite 57.7 58.6 56.8
06/06/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.10% -2.90%
06/06/2018 Revisions: Trade Balance
06/06/2018 Nonfarm Productivity 0.60% 0.40% 0.70%
06/06/2018 Unit Labor Costs 2.80% 2.90% 2.70%
06/06/2018 Trade Balance -$49.0b -$46.2b -$49.0b -$47.2b
06/07/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 221k 221k
06/07/2018 Continuing Claims 1738k 1726k
06/07/2018 Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
06/07/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 55.2
06/07/2018 Household Change in Net Worth $2076b
06/07/2018 Consumer Credit $14.000b $11.622b
06/08/2018 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.30%
06/08/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.00% 0.00%
06/12/2018 NFIB Small Business Optimism 104.8 104.8
06/12/2018 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20%
06/12/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
06/12/2018 CPI YoY 2.70% 2.50%
06/12/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.10%
06/12/2018 CPI Index NSA 250.546
06/12/2018 CPI Core Index SA 256.45
06/12/2018 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.40%
06/12/2018 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.20%
06/12/2018 Monthly Budget Statement $214.3b
06/13/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.10%
06/13/2018 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% 0.10%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.10%
06/13/2018 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.60%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30%
06/13/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.50%
06/13/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.00% 1.75%
06/13/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.75% 1.50%