The risk tone is modestly better today, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve. Contributing to today’s market activity were positive headlines on the trade front and “hawkish” comments from ECB leaders. On the trade front, reports suggest progress on negotiations with China, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is expected to ask President Trump to exempt Canada from the recently declared steel/aluminum tariffs. Regarding global monetary policy, multiple ECB leaders confirmed that they will be discussing a wind-down of the current QE program at their meeting next week. The central bank has been widely expected to end the current program when it expires in September; however, doubts arose amid the recent market volatility (Italy/Spain political concerns) and weaker data trend, particularly relative to expectations. Regarding the latter, these officials opined that the recent weakness in the data trend is transitory and that inflation pressures are gradually building.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/04/2018Factory Orders-0.50%-0.80%1.60%1.70%
06/04/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.30%0.50%
06/04/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.60%-1.70%
06/04/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.90%0.90%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.00%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%0.80%
06/05/2018Markit US Services PMI55.756.855.7
06/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.655.7
06/05/2018JOLTS Job Openings6350669865506633
06/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite57.758.656.8
06/06/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%-2.90%
06/06/2018Revisions: Trade Balance
06/06/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.60%0.40%0.70%
06/06/2018Unit Labor Costs2.80%2.90%2.70%
06/06/2018Trade Balance-$49.0b-$46.2b-$49.0b-$47.2b
06/07/2018Initial Jobless Claims221k221k
06/07/2018Continuing Claims1738k1726k
06/07/2018Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
06/07/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort55.2
06/07/2018Household Change in Net Worth$2076b
06/07/2018Consumer Credit$14.000b$11.622b
06/08/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%
06/08/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%0.00%
06/12/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism104.8104.8
06/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
06/12/2018CPI YoY2.70%2.50%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
06/12/2018CPI Index NSA250.546
06/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.45
06/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%
06/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%
06/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement$214.3b
06/13/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%1.75%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%1.50%