June 7, 2023 Headlines

It’s a fairly quiet start to the day with no major economic events on the calendar and the next FOMC meeting just a week away. Treasury yields are leaking higher, particularly on the front-end of the curve, as the US Treasury is set to ramp up bill issuance beginning with tomorrow’s auction. There are mixed opinions amongst rate strategists on the ultimate impact of the outsized issuance anticipated over the coming weeks/months. Some worry that it will push short-term rates higher and fuel a further drain of bank deposits. Others feel that enough liquidity remains in the markets to absorb the excess supply without major disruption. As we discussed in Monday’s commentary, it will depend somewhat on the primary buyer base and how liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet transfer from one account to the other. Regardless of which side of the debate is correct, it will be a focal point for short-term markets and the bond market as a whole in the near future.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/7/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.40% -3.70%
6/7/23 Revisions: US Trade in Goods and Services
6/7/23 Trade Balance -$75.8b -$74.6b -$64.2b -$60.6b
6/7/23 Consumer Credit $22.000b $26.514b
6/8/23 Initial Jobless Claims 235k 232k
6/8/23 Continuing Claims 1802k 1795k
6/8/23 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.90% -2.10%
6/8/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.20% -0.20%
6/8/23 Household Change in Net Worth $2927b
6/12/23 Monthly Budget Statement $176.2b
6/13/23 NFIB Small Business Optimism 89 89
6/13/23 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.40%
6/13/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.40%
6/13/23 CPI YoY 4.10% 4.90%
6/13/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.20% 5.50%
6/13/23 CPI Index NSA 304.116 303.363
6/13/23 CPI Core Index SA 306.489
6/13/23 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -1.10% -1.20%
6/13/23 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -0.50% -0.60%
6/14/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.40%
6/14/23 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.10% 0.20%
6/14/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
6/14/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20%
6/14/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.50% 2.30%
6/14/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.20%
6/14/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 3.40%
6/14/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.25% 5.25%
6/14/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.00% 5.00%
6/14/23 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.15%

 

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