June 8, 2020 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are leaking higher as risk assets continue to trade higher. S&P 500 futures are up 73 bps following Friday’s 2.6% gain in the underlying index. The focus for this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which will include the first updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) since last December. The Fed shelved the March SEP given the highly uncertain outlook, and market participants will, as usual, be more focused on the dot plot, which reveals each committee member’s forecast for the fed funds rate. Fed Chair Powell has made it clear in recent weeks that the Fed intends to keep policies overly accommodative until the recovery is well underway, and the SEP has been used as a forward guidance tool for nearly 20 years. How will the Fed guide markets on the expected duration of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP)? It would not be surprising to see rates projected at the zero bound at least through 2021, but we’ll know for sure on Wednesday afternoon.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
6/9/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism92.590.9
6/9/2020JOLTS Job Openings57506191
6/9/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
6/9/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-5.20%
6/10/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-3.90%
6/10/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.90%7.00%
6/10/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY7.50%7.60%
6/10/2020CPI MoM0.00%-0.80%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.00%-0.40%
6/10/2020CPI YoY0.30%0.30%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.40%
6/10/2020CPI Index NSA256.813256.389
6/10/2020CPI Core Index SA265.601265.601
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
6/10/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
6/10/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$600.0b-$737.9b
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-1.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.90%
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-1.20%-1.20%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.50%0.60%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY-0.60%-0.30%
6/11/2020Initial Jobless Claims1550k1877k
6/11/2020Continuing Claims20000k21487k
6/11/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort37
6/12/2020Import Price Index MoM0.60%-2.60%
6/12/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.30%-0.50%
6/12/2020Import Price Index YoY-6.30%-6.80%
6/12/2020Export Price Index MoM0.70%-3.30%
6/12/2020Export Price Index YoY-7.00%
6/12/2020Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7572.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions82.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Expectations65.9
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
6/12/2020Household Change in Net Worth$3148b

 

 

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