June 8, 2020 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are leaking higher as risk assets continue to trade higher. S&P 500 futures are up 73 bps following Friday’s 2.6% gain in the underlying index. The focus for this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which will include the first updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) since last December. The Fed shelved the March SEP given the highly uncertain outlook, and market participants will, as usual, be more focused on the dot plot, which reveals each committee member’s forecast for the fed funds rate. Fed Chair Powell has made it clear in recent weeks that the Fed intends to keep policies overly accommodative until the recovery is well underway, and the SEP has been used as a forward guidance tool for nearly 20 years. How will the Fed guide markets on the expected duration of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP)? It would not be surprising to see rates projected at the zero bound at least through 2021, but we’ll know for sure on Wednesday afternoon.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/9/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism92.590.9
6/9/2020JOLTS Job Openings57506191
6/9/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
6/9/2020Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-5.20%
6/10/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-3.90%
6/10/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY6.90%7.00%
6/10/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY7.50%7.60%
6/10/2020CPI MoM0.00%-0.80%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.00%-0.40%
6/10/2020CPI YoY0.30%0.30%
6/10/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.30%1.40%
6/10/2020CPI Index NSA256.813256.389
6/10/2020CPI Core Index SA265.601265.601
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
6/10/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
6/10/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
6/10/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$600.0b-$737.9b
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-1.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM-0.10%-0.30%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM-0.10%-0.90%
6/11/2020PPI Final Demand YoY-1.20%-1.20%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY0.50%0.60%
6/11/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY-0.60%-0.30%
6/11/2020Initial Jobless Claims1550k1877k
6/11/2020Continuing Claims20000k21487k
6/11/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort37
6/12/2020Import Price Index MoM0.60%-2.60%
6/12/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.30%-0.50%
6/12/2020Import Price Index YoY-6.30%-6.80%
6/12/2020Export Price Index MoM0.70%-3.30%
6/12/2020Export Price Index YoY-7.00%
6/12/2020Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7572.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions82.3
6/12/2020U. of Mich. Expectations65.9
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%
6/12/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
6/12/2020Household Change in Net Worth$3148b



Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.