Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning despite general weakness in global equities overnight. Negative headlines related to this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada is sparking some skittishness in the markets, but there is more focus on stress in emerging markets (namely Brazil and Turkey), as well as ongoing trade negotiations with China. The New York Times is reporting that the White House Council of Economic Advisors has produced an internal report suggesting that the president’s tariffs will hurt economic growth in the United States, which would not necessarily be a major revelation in the economist community. There are no major economic releases scheduled for today, and next week’s calendar will be headlined by FOMC and ECB meetings, as well as the May CPI and retail sales reports.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 06/04/2018 | Factory Orders | -0.50% | -0.80% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
| 06/04/2018 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 06/04/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | — | -1.60% | -1.70% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.90% | 0.90% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 1.00% | 1.00% | — |
| 06/04/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.90% | 0.80% | — |
| 06/05/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.7 | 56.8 | 55.7 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 56.6 | 55.7 | — |
| 06/05/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6350 | 6698 | 6550 | 6633 |
| 06/05/2018 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 57.7 | 58.6 | 56.8 | — |
| 06/06/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.10% | -2.90% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Revisions: Trade Balance | ||||
| 06/06/2018 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.70% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.80% | 2.90% | 2.70% | — |
| 06/06/2018 | Trade Balance | -$49.0b | -$46.2b | -$49.0b | -$47.2b |
| 06/07/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 222k | 221k | 223k |
| 06/07/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1735k | 1741k | 1726k | 1720k |
| 06/07/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 54.8 | 55.2 | — |
| 06/07/2018 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | $1028b | $2076b | $2474b |
| 06/07/2018 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | $9.262b | $11.622b | $12.278b |
| 06/08/2018 | Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 06/08/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 06/08/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105 | — | 104.8 | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.10% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 251.484 | — | 250.546 | — |
| 06/12/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 256.45 | — |
| 06/12/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$119.0b | — | $214.3b | — |
| 06/13/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.10% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.00% | — | 1.75% | — |
| 06/13/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 06/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 06/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 06/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 06/14/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.80% | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 222k | — | 222k | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1741k | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 06/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 06/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | — | 20.1 | — |
| 06/15/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 06/15/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 06/15/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.10% | — | 78.00% | — |
| 06/15/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.5 | — | 98 | — |
| 06/15/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.8 | — |
| 06/15/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.1 | — |
| 06/15/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 06/15/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 06/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$38.5b | — |
| 06/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $61.8b | — |