Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning despite general weakness in global equities overnight. Negative headlines related to this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada is sparking some skittishness in the markets, but there is more focus on stress in emerging markets (namely Brazil and Turkey), as well as ongoing trade negotiations with China. The New York Times is reporting that the White House Council of Economic Advisors has produced an internal report suggesting that the president’s tariffs will hurt economic growth in the United States, which would not necessarily be a major revelation in the economist community. There are no major economic releases scheduled for today, and next week’s calendar will be headlined by FOMC and ECB meetings, as well as the May CPI and retail sales reports.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
06/04/2018Factory Orders-0.50%-0.80%1.60%1.70%
06/04/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.30%0.50%
06/04/2018Durable Goods Orders-1.60%-1.70%
06/04/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.90%0.90%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.00%
06/04/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%0.80%
06/05/2018Markit US Services PMI55.756.855.7
06/05/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.655.7
06/05/2018JOLTS Job Openings6350669865506633
06/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite57.758.656.8
06/06/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%-2.90%
06/06/2018Revisions: Trade Balance
06/06/2018Nonfarm Productivity0.60%0.40%0.70%
06/06/2018Unit Labor Costs2.80%2.90%2.70%
06/06/2018Trade Balance-$49.0b-$46.2b-$49.0b-$47.2b
06/07/2018Initial Jobless Claims220k222k221k223k
06/07/2018Continuing Claims1735k1741k1726k1720k
06/07/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort54.855.2
06/07/2018Household Change in Net Worth$1028b$2076b$2474b
06/07/2018Consumer Credit$14.000b$9.262b$11.622b$12.278b
06/08/2018Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey (Table)
06/08/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.00%0.00%
06/08/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%
06/12/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism105104.8
06/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
06/12/2018CPI YoY2.70%2.50%
06/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%
06/12/2018CPI Index NSA251.484250.546
06/12/2018CPI Core Index SA256.45
06/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.40%
06/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%
06/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$119.0b$214.3b
06/13/2018MBA Mortgage Applications4.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%
06/13/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.90%2.60%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%
06/13/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%1.75%
06/13/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%1.50%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.30%0.20%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.30%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.30%0.30%
06/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.40%0.50%
06/14/2018Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.30%
06/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
06/14/2018Import Price Index YoY3.90%3.30%
06/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%
06/14/2018Export Price Index YoY3.80%
06/14/2018Initial Jobless Claims222k222k
06/14/2018Continuing Claims1741k
06/14/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort54.8
06/14/2018Business Inventories0.30%0.00%
06/15/2018Empire Manufacturing1820.1
06/15/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.70%
06/15/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.50%
06/15/2018Capacity Utilization78.10%78.00%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment98.598
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.8
06/15/2018U. of Mich. Expectations89.1
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
06/15/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
06/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows-$38.5b
06/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$61.8b