June 9, 2022 Headlines

A hawkish tone in the bond market this morning has the 2-year Treasury yield at a fresh cycle high of 2.82%. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) laid the groundwork for its first rate hike (25 bps) next month, and it also hinted at a higher likelihood for larger hikes in the fall as it closes the policy gap with the Fed and other major central banks battling inflation risks. The ECB will also end asset purchases on July 1. All eyes now shift to tomorrow’s CPI report. Markets are prepping for another hot read on inflation, driven by strong consumer demand in the services sector. Any signs of prices cooling would be well received in the bond market, but no traders are holding their breath at this point.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

06/07/22Trade Balance-$89.5b-$87.1b-$109.8b-$107.7b
06/07/22Revisions: Trade Balance
06/07/22Consumer Credit$35.000b$38.069b$52.435b$47.340b
06/08/22MBA Mortgage Applications-6.50%-2.30%
06/08/22Wholesale Inventories MoM2.10%2.20%2.10%
06/08/22Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.70%1.70%1.80%
06/09/22Initial Jobless Claims206k229k200k202k
06/09/22Continuing Claims1303k1306k1309k1306k
06/09/22Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
06/09/22Household Change in Net Worth$5297b
06/10/22CPI MoM0.70%0.30%
06/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
06/10/22CPI YoY8.20%8.30%
06/10/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.90%6.20%
06/10/22CPI Index NSA291.689289.109
06/10/22CPI Core Index SA291.945290.455
06/10/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.60%
06/10/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.40%
06/10/22U. of Mich. Sentiment58.258.4
06/10/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions62.963.3
06/10/22U. of Mich. Expectations55.355.2
06/10/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.30%5.30%
06/10/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%
06/10/22Monthly Budget Statement-$136.5b-$132.0b

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