June 9, 2022 Headlines

A hawkish tone in the bond market this morning has the 2-year Treasury yield at a fresh cycle high of 2.82%. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) laid the groundwork for its first rate hike (25 bps) next month, and it also hinted at a higher likelihood for larger hikes in the fall as it closes the policy gap with the Fed and other major central banks battling inflation risks. The ECB will also end asset purchases on July 1. All eyes now shift to tomorrow’s CPI report. Markets are prepping for another hot read on inflation, driven by strong consumer demand in the services sector. Any signs of prices cooling would be well received in the bond market, but no traders are holding their breath at this point.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
06/07/22	Trade Balance	-$89.5b	-$87.1b	-$109.8b	-$107.7b
06/07/22	Revisions: Trade Balance
06/07/22	Consumer Credit	$35.000b	$38.069b	$52.435b	$47.340b
06/08/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.50%	-2.30%	—
06/08/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	2.10%	2.20%	2.10%	—
06/08/22	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	0.70%	1.70%	1.80%
06/09/22	Initial Jobless Claims	206k	229k	200k	202k
06/09/22	Continuing Claims	1303k	1306k	1309k	1306k
06/09/22	Bloomberg June United States Economic Survey
06/09/22	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$5297b	—
06/10/22	CPI MoM	0.70%	—	0.30%	—
06/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
06/10/22	CPI YoY	8.20%	—	8.30%	—
06/10/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.90%	—	6.20%	—
06/10/22	CPI Index NSA	291.689	—	289.109	—
06/10/22	CPI Core Index SA	291.945	—	290.455	—
06/10/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-2.60%	—
06/10/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.40%	—
06/10/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	58.2	—	58.4	—
06/10/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	62.9	—	63.3	—
06/10/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	55.3	—	55.2	—
06/10/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	5.30%	—	5.30%	—
06/10/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—
06/10/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$136.5b	—	-$132.0b	—

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