Treasury prices were higher overnight on softer economic data in Europe and weaker equity markets, but the move has largely reversed following another solid U.S. inflation report. Most Asian and European equity indices are lower today, and U.S. equity futures are effectively flat at the moment. January personal income and spending growth data was largely in line with expectations (income 0.4% and real spending -0.1%), and in the wake of tax reform, real disposable income (adjusted for taxes and inflation) rose 0.6%, the largest monthly gain since December 2012. The PCE deflator (headline inflation) was up 0.4% in January, as expected and boosted by higher energy prices. PCE core was up 0.3% m/m (as expected), and on a year-over-year basis, the core measure was unchanged at 1.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee today, and markets will be looking to see if he reinforces his hawkish rhetoric from Tuesday’s testimony before the House or tones it down a bit.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 02/26 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| 02/26 | New Home Sales | 647k | 593k | 625k | 643k |
| 02/26 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | -7.80% | -9.30% | -7.60% |
| 02/26 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 30 | 37.2 | 33.4 | — |
| 02/27 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.3b | -$74.4b | -$71.6b | -$72.3b |
| 02/27 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 02/27 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 02/27 | Durable Goods Orders | -2.00% | -3.70% | 2.80% | 2.60% |
| 02/27 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | -0.30% | 0.70% | — |
| 02/27 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | -0.20% | -0.60% | — |
| 02/27 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.70% |
| 02/27 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | 1.60% | 1.40% | 1.50% |
| 02/27 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 204.45 | 204.21 | 204.11 |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.60% | 0.64% | 0.75% | 0.74% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.35% | 6.30% | 6.41% | 6.36% |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 196.23 | 195.94 | 195.78 |
| 02/27 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.27% | 6.21% | 6.13% |
| 02/27 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 15 | 28 | 14 | — |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 126.5 | 130.8 | 125.4 | 124.3 |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 162.4 | 155.3 | 154.7 |
| 02/27 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 109.7 | 105.5 | 104 |
| 02/28 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.70% | -6.60% | — |
| 02/28 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.60% | — |
| 02/28 | Personal Consumption | 3.60% | 3.80% | 3.80% | — |
| 02/28 | GDP Price Index | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 02/28 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% | — |
| 02/28 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 64.1 | 61.9 | 65.7 | — |
| 02/28 | Revisions: Pending Home Sales | ||||
| 02/28 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | -4.70% | 0.50% | 0.00% |
| 02/28 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | -1.70% | -1.80% | — |
| 03/01 | Personal Income | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 03/01 | Personal Spending | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
| 03/01 | Real Personal Spending | -0.10% | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 03/01 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.70% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Core MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% | — |
| 03/01 | PCE Core YoY | 1.50% | 1.50% | 1.50% | — |
| 03/01 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 210k | 222k | 220k |
| 03/01 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | 1931k | 1875k | 1874k |
| 03/01 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 56.2 | 56.6 | — |
| 03/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.3 | 55.9 | — |
| 03/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.7 | — | 59.1 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 70 | — | 72.7 | — |
| 03/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 65.4 | — |
| 03/01 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.30m | — | 13.10m | — |
| 03/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.20m | — | 17.07m | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.5 | — | 99.9 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.1 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90.2 | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 03/02 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |