Treasury prices were higher overnight on softer economic data in Europe and weaker equity markets, but the move has largely reversed following another solid U.S. inflation report. Most Asian and European equity indices are lower today, and U.S. equity futures are effectively flat at the moment. January personal income and spending growth data was largely in line with expectations (income 0.4% and real spending -0.1%), and in the wake of tax reform, real disposable income (adjusted for taxes and inflation) rose 0.6%, the largest monthly gain since December 2012. The PCE deflator (headline inflation) was up 0.4% in January, as expected and boosted by higher energy prices. PCE core was up 0.3% m/m (as expected), and on a year-over-year basis, the core measure was unchanged at 1.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee today, and markets will be looking to see if he reinforces his hawkish rhetoric from Tuesday’s testimony before the House or tones it down a bit.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
02/26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.25 0.12 0.27 0.14
02/26 New Home Sales 647k 593k 625k 643k
02/26 New Home Sales MoM 3.50% -7.80% -9.30% -7.60%
02/26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 30 37.2 33.4
02/27 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$72.3b -$74.4b -$71.6b -$72.3b
02/27 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% 0.70% 0.40% 0.60%
02/27 Retail Inventories MoM 0.80% 0.20% 0.30%
02/27 Durable Goods Orders -2.00% -3.70% 2.80% 2.60%
02/27 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% -0.30% 0.70%
02/27 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% -0.20% -0.60%
02/27 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.30% 0.10% 0.40% 0.70%
02/27 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1.60% 1.40% 1.50%
02/27 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 204.45 204.21 204.11
02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.60% 0.64% 0.75% 0.74%
02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 6.35% 6.30% 6.41% 6.36%
02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 196.23 195.94 195.78
02/27 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 6.27% 6.21% 6.13%
02/27 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 15 28 14
02/27 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 126.5 130.8 125.4 124.3
02/27 Conf. Board Present Situation 162.4 155.3 154.7
02/27 Conf. Board Expectations 109.7 105.5 104
02/28 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.70% -6.60%
02/28 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.50% 2.50% 2.60%
02/28 Personal Consumption 3.60% 3.80% 3.80%
02/28 GDP Price Index 2.40% 2.30% 2.40%
02/28 Core PCE QoQ 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
02/28 Chicago Purchasing Manager 64.1 61.9 65.7
02/28 Revisions: Pending Home Sales
02/28 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% -4.70% 0.50% 0.00%
02/28 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -1.70% -1.80%
03/01 Personal Income 0.30% 0.40% 0.40%
03/01 Personal Spending 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
03/01 Real Personal Spending -0.10% -0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
03/01 PCE Deflator MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.10%
03/01 PCE Deflator YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
03/01 PCE Core MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
03/01 PCE Core YoY 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
03/01 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 210k 222k 220k
03/01 Continuing Claims 1925k 1931k 1875k 1874k
03/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.2 56.6
03/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.9 55.3 55.9
03/01 Construction Spending MoM 0.30% 0.70%
03/01 ISM Manufacturing 58.7 59.1
03/01 ISM Employment 54.2
03/01 ISM Prices Paid 70 72.7
03/01 ISM New Orders 65.4
03/01 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales 13.30m 13.10m
03/01 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.20m 17.07m
03/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.5 99.9
03/02 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.1
03/02 U. of Mich. Expectations 90.2
03/02 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
03/02 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%