March 1, 2021 Headlines

Better than expected economic data out of Europe and Japan is fueling a risk-on trade in global equity markets, and long-end Treasury yields are down 4-6 bps in early trading. The ECB will publish their updated bond purchase schedule at 9:45 a.m. ET this morning, and it will be the first such update since their chief economist suggested a willingness last week to alter the purchase program to combat the “tightening of financial conditions” via higher bond yields. Eurozone aggregate manufacturing PMI for February was 57.9, up 3 points from the prior month and a 3-year high. On the Covid front, the CDC approved another new vaccine on Friday. The single-dose shot by Johnson & Johnson was cleared after showing 66% effectiveness at preventing moderate to severe Covid-19 cases.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
3/1/2021 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 58.5 — 58.5 —
3/1/2021 Construction Spending MoM 0.80% — 1.00% —
3/1/2021 ISM Manufacturing 58.9 — 58.7 —
3/1/2021 ISM Prices Paid 80 — 82.1 —
3/1/2021 ISM New Orders 60 — 61.1 —
3/1/2021 ISM Employment — — 52.6 —
3/2/2021 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m — 16.63m —
3/3/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -11.40% —
3/3/2021 ADP Employment Change 200k — 174k —
3/3/2021 Markit US Composite PMI — — 58.8 —
3/3/2021 Markit US Services PMI 58.9 — 58.9 —
3/3/2021 ISM Services Index 58.7 — 58.7 —
3/3/2021 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
3/4/2021 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 17.40% —
3/4/2021 Nonfarm Productivity -4.70% — -4.80% —
3/4/2021 Unit Labor Costs 6.60% — 6.80% —
3/4/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 755k — 730k —
3/4/2021 Continuing Claims 4300k — 4419k —
3/4/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 47.3 —
3/4/2021 Durable Goods Orders 3.40% — 3.40% —
3/4/2021 Factory Orders 2.10% — 1.10% —
3/4/2021 Durables Ex Transportation 1.40% — 1.40% —
3/4/2021 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 1.40% —
3/4/2021 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% — 0.50% —
3/4/2021 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 2.10% —
3/5/2021 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% — 5.40% —
3/5/2021 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 188k — 49k —
3/5/2021 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -159k —
3/5/2021 Change in Private Payrolls 194k — 6k —
3/5/2021 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k — -10k —
3/5/2021 Unemployment Rate 6.30% — 6.30% —
3/5/2021 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.20% —
3/5/2021 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 — 35 —
3/5/2021 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40% — 61.40% —
3/5/2021 Underemployment Rate — — 11.10% —
3/5/2021 Trade Balance -$67.4b — -$66.6b —
3/5/2021 Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
3/5/2021 Consumer Credit $12.000b — $9.734b —

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