March 1, 2022 Headlines

The flight-to-quality trade in global financial markets persisted overnight, and front-end Treasury yields are down 12 basis points (bps) to start the day, adding to yesterday’s 14 bps decline. The 10-year yield is at 1.75%, down 30 bps from the mid-February high. The situation in Ukraine continues to worsen according to media reports, fueling more speculation of what Putin’s ultimate intentions might be. The Fed’s job hasn’t gotten any easier in all of this. The central bank stands ready to initiate a potentially aggressive tightening cycle on March 16, but the escalation of tensions in Europe has to be considered, even if it doesn’t alter plans for now. We will perhaps get a glimpse into the Fed’s current mindset, including current geopolitical risks, when Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
02/28/22	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$99.5b	-$107.6b	-$101.0b	-$100.5b
02/28/22	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.30%	0.80%	2.20%	2.30%
02/28/22	Retail Inventories MoM	1.00%	1.90%	4.40%	4.70%
02/28/22	MNI Chicago PMI	62.3	56.3	65.2	—
02/28/22	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	4.3	14	2	—
03/01/22	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	57.5	—	57.5	—
03/01/22	Construction Spending MoM	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
03/01/22	ISM Manufacturing	58	—	57.6	—
03/01/22	ISM Prices Paid	77.5	—	76.1	—
03/01/22	ISM New Orders	56.3	—	57.9	—
03/01/22	ISM Employment	54.2	—	54.5	—
03/01/22	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	14.40m	—	15.04m	—
03/02/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-13.10%	—
03/02/22	ADP Employment Change	375k	—	-301k	—
03/02/22	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
03/03/22	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-76.00%	—
03/03/22	Nonfarm Productivity	6.70%	—	6.60%	—
03/03/22	Unit Labor Costs	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
03/03/22	Initial Jobless Claims	225k	—	232k	—
03/03/22	Continuing Claims	1420k	—	1476k	—
03/03/22	Markit US Services PMI	56.7	—	56.7	—
03/03/22	Markit US Composite PMI	56	—	56	—
03/03/22	ISM Services Index	61.1	—	59.9	—
03/03/22	Factory Orders	0.70%	—	-0.40%	—
03/03/22	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.10%	—
03/03/22	Durable Goods Orders	1.60%	—	1.60%	—
03/03/22	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	—	0.70%	—
03/03/22	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.90%	—
03/03/22	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.90%	—
03/04/22	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	709k	—
03/04/22	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	403k	—	467k	—
03/04/22	Change in Private Payrolls	383k	—	444k	—
03/04/22	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	24k	—	13k	—
03/04/22	Unemployment Rate	3.90%	—	4.00%	—
03/04/22	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
03/04/22	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.80%	—	5.70%	—
03/04/22	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.5	—
03/04/22	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.20%	—	62.20%	—
03/04/22	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.10%	—

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