March 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries opened 3 bps higher this morning but have since retreated after CPI data painted a fairly tame inflation picture. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% month over month and up 1.3% year over year. After adding back food and energy costs, CPI increased by 0.4% from the prior month and by 1.7% from the year prior. The increase in CPI was tempered by declining costs for used vehicles, clothing, and transportation services in February. While this report did show a rather soft inflation picture, the market is still expecting a pickup in pricing as stimulus and increased vaccinations help to spur a rebound in the economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/08/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%1.30%1.30%
03/08/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.90%4.90%1.20%1.90%
03/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism9795.895
03/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%0.50%
03/10/21CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.30%
03/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
03/10/21CPI YoY1.70%1.70%1.40%
03/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.40%1.30%1.40%
03/10/21CPI Index NSA263.125263.014261.582
03/10/21CPI Core Index SA270.394270.299270.025
03/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%6.10%5.70%
03/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.40%4.00%3.90%
03/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$305.0b-$235.3b
03/11/21Initial Jobless Claims725k745k
03/11/21Continuing Claims4200k4295k
03/11/21Langer Consumer Comfort48.9
03/11/21JOLTS Job Openings66506646
03/11/21Household Change in Net Worth$3817b
03/12/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%1.30%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%1.20%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%1.20%
03/12/21PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%1.70%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.00%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%2.00%
03/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment78.576.8
03/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.386.2
03/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations7270.7
03/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%3.30%
03/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.