March 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries opened 3 bps higher this morning but have since retreated after CPI data painted a fairly tame inflation picture. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% month over month and up 1.3% year over year. After adding back food and energy costs, CPI increased by 0.4% from the prior month and by 1.7% from the year prior. The increase in CPI was tempered by declining costs for used vehicles, clothing, and transportation services in February. While this report did show a rather soft inflation picture, the market is still expecting a pickup in pricing as stimulus and increased vaccinations help to spur a rebound in the economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

03/08/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.30%1.30%1.30%
03/08/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.90%4.90%1.20%1.90%
03/09/21NFIB Small Business Optimism9795.895
03/10/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%0.50%
03/10/21CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.30%
03/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.00%
03/10/21CPI YoY1.70%1.70%1.40%
03/10/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.40%1.30%1.40%
03/10/21CPI Index NSA263.125263.014261.582
03/10/21CPI Core Index SA270.394270.299270.025
03/10/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%6.10%5.70%
03/10/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.40%4.00%3.90%
03/10/21Monthly Budget Statement-$305.0b-$235.3b
03/11/21Initial Jobless Claims725k745k
03/11/21Continuing Claims4200k4295k
03/11/21Langer Consumer Comfort48.9
03/11/21JOLTS Job Openings66506646
03/11/21Household Change in Net Worth$3817b
03/12/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%1.30%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%1.20%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%1.20%
03/12/21PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%1.70%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.00%
03/12/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%2.00%
03/12/21U. of Mich. Sentiment78.576.8
03/12/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.386.2
03/12/21U. of Mich. Expectations7270.7
03/12/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.30%3.30%
03/12/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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