March 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries opened 3 bps higher this morning but have since retreated after CPI data painted a fairly tame inflation picture. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% month over month and up 1.3% year over year. After adding back food and energy costs, CPI increased by 0.4% from the prior month and by 1.7% from the year prior. The increase in CPI was tempered by declining costs for used vehicles, clothing, and transportation services in February. While this report did show a rather soft inflation picture, the market is still expecting a pickup in pricing as stimulus and increased vaccinations help to spur a rebound in the economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/08/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.30% 1.30% 1.30% —
03/08/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.90% 4.90% 1.20% 1.90%
03/09/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 97 95.8 95 —
03/10/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -1.30% 0.50% —
03/10/21 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% —
03/10/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% —
03/10/21 CPI YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.40% —
03/10/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.40% 1.30% 1.40% —
03/10/21 CPI Index NSA 263.125 263.014 261.582 —
03/10/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.394 270.299 270.025 —
03/10/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — 4.10% 6.10% 5.70%
03/10/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — 3.40% 4.00% 3.90%
03/10/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$305.0b — -$235.3b —
03/11/21 Initial Jobless Claims 725k — 745k —
03/11/21 Continuing Claims 4200k — 4295k —
03/11/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 48.9 —
03/11/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6650 — 6646 —
03/11/21 Household Change in Net Worth — — $3817b —
03/12/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% — 1.30% —
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% — 1.20% —
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% — 1.20% —
03/12/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.70% — 1.70% —
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.60% — 2.00% —
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.50% — 2.00% —
03/12/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 78.5 — 76.8 —
03/12/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 88.3 — 86.2 —
03/12/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 72 — 70.7 —
03/12/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% — 3.30% —
03/12/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

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