March 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries opened 3 bps higher this morning but have since retreated after CPI data painted a fairly tame inflation picture. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% month over month and up 1.3% year over year. After adding back food and energy costs, CPI increased by 0.4% from the prior month and by 1.7% from the year prior. The increase in CPI was tempered by declining costs for used vehicles, clothing, and transportation services in February. While this report did show a rather soft inflation picture, the market is still expecting a pickup in pricing as stimulus and increased vaccinations help to spur a rebound in the economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/08/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.30%	1.30%	1.30%	—
03/08/21	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.90%	4.90%	1.20%	1.90%
03/09/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	97	95.8	95	—
03/10/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.30%	0.50%	—
03/10/21	CPI MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.30%	—
03/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.00%	—
03/10/21	CPI YoY	1.70%	1.70%	1.40%	—
03/10/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.40%	1.30%	1.40%	—
03/10/21	CPI Index NSA	263.125	263.014	261.582	—
03/10/21	CPI Core Index SA	270.394	270.299	270.025	—
03/10/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	4.10%	6.10%	5.70%
03/10/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	3.40%	4.00%	3.90%
03/10/21	Monthly Budget Statement	-$305.0b	—	-$235.3b	—
03/11/21	Initial Jobless Claims	725k	—	745k	—
03/11/21	Continuing Claims	4200k	—	4295k	—
03/11/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	48.9	—
03/11/21	JOLTS Job Openings	6650	—	6646	—
03/11/21	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$3817b	—
03/12/21	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.40%	—	1.30%	—
03/12/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	1.20%	—
03/12/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.30%	—	1.20%	—
03/12/21	PPI Final Demand YoY	2.70%	—	1.70%	—
03/12/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.60%	—	2.00%	—
03/12/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	2.50%	—	2.00%	—
03/12/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	78.5	—	76.8	—
03/12/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	88.3	—	86.2	—
03/12/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	72	—	70.7	—
03/12/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.30%	—	3.30%	—
03/12/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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