Treasuries opened 3 bps higher this morning but have since retreated after CPI data painted a fairly tame inflation picture. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% month over month and up 1.3% year over year. After adding back food and energy costs, CPI increased by 0.4% from the prior month and by 1.7% from the year prior. The increase in CPI was tempered by declining costs for used vehicles, clothing, and transportation services in February. While this report did show a rather soft inflation picture, the market is still expecting a pickup in pricing as stimulus and increased vaccinations help to spur a rebound in the economy.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/08/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.30% | 1.30% | 1.30% | — |
03/08/21 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.90% | 4.90% | 1.20% | 1.90% |
03/09/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97 | 95.8 | 95 | — |
03/10/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.30% | 0.50% | — |
03/10/21 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
03/10/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.00% | — |
03/10/21 | CPI YoY | 1.70% | 1.70% | 1.40% | — |
03/10/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.40% | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
03/10/21 | CPI Index NSA | 263.125 | 263.014 | 261.582 | — |
03/10/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 270.394 | 270.299 | 270.025 | — |
03/10/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.10% | 6.10% | 5.70% |
03/10/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 3.40% | 4.00% | 3.90% |
03/10/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$305.0b | — | -$235.3b | — |
03/11/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 725k | — | 745k | — |
03/11/21 | Continuing Claims | 4200k | — | 4295k | — |
03/11/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 48.9 | — |
03/11/21 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6650 | — | 6646 | — |
03/11/21 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $3817b | — |
03/12/21 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | — | 1.30% | — |
03/12/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.20% | — |
03/12/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 1.20% | — |
03/12/21 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
03/12/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.00% | — |
03/12/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.00% | — |
03/12/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 78.5 | — | 76.8 | — |
03/12/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 88.3 | — | 86.2 | — |
03/12/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 72 | — | 70.7 | — |
03/12/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
03/12/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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