March 10, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries opened 3 bps higher this morning but have since retreated after CPI data painted a fairly tame inflation picture. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.1% month over month and up 1.3% year over year. After adding back food and energy costs, CPI increased by 0.4% from the prior month and by 1.7% from the year prior. The increase in CPI was tempered by declining costs for used vehicles, clothing, and transportation services in February. While this report did show a rather soft inflation picture, the market is still expecting a pickup in pricing as stimulus and increased vaccinations help to spur a rebound in the economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/08/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
03/08/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.90% 4.90% 1.20% 1.90%
03/09/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 97 95.8 95
03/10/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.30% 0.50%
03/10/21 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
03/10/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%
03/10/21 CPI YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.40%
03/10/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.40% 1.30% 1.40%
03/10/21 CPI Index NSA 263.125 263.014 261.582
03/10/21 CPI Core Index SA 270.394 270.299 270.025
03/10/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 4.10% 6.10% 5.70%
03/10/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 3.40% 4.00% 3.90%
03/10/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$305.0b -$235.3b
03/11/21 Initial Jobless Claims 725k 745k
03/11/21 Continuing Claims 4200k 4295k
03/11/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 48.9
03/11/21 JOLTS Job Openings 6650 6646
03/11/21 Household Change in Net Worth $3817b
03/12/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 1.30%
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 1.20%
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 1.20%
03/12/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.70% 1.70%
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.60% 2.00%
03/12/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.50% 2.00%
03/12/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 78.5 76.8
03/12/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 88.3 86.2
03/12/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 72 70.7
03/12/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.30% 3.30%
03/12/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.