Treasuries opened 1-2 bps higher this morning following the surprise announcement that the ECB would accelerate its exit from the bond market. But than retraced some of that move following the CPI release. CPI increased by 0.8% MoM and core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, increased by 0.5%. The YoY numbers show headline CPI hitting a 40-year high of 7.9% while core CPI rose to 6.4%. Rising gasoline prices accounted for nearly a third of the MoM increase in CPI. Increased in food prices also drove the number higher, with food prices up 1% in February. It’s a foregone conclusion that the Fed will raise rates next week, the question on everyone’s mind is how will the central bank manage monetary policy in the face of steady inflation pressures and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/07/22 | Consumer Credit | $24.250b | $6.838b | $18.898b | $22.384b |
03/08/22 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97.3 | 95.7 | 97.1 | — |
03/08/22 | Trade Balance | -$87.3b | -$89.7b | -$80.7b | -$82.0b |
03/08/22 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.80% | — |
03/08/22 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 1.00% | 4.00% | 0.20% | 0.80% |
03/09/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 8.50% | -0.70% | — |
03/09/22 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
03/09/22 | JOLTS Job Openings | 10950k | 11263k | 10925k | 11448k |
03/10/22 | CPI MoM | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.60% | — |
03/10/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.60% | — |
03/10/22 | CPI YoY | 7.90% | 7.90% | 7.50% | — |
03/10/22 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.00% | — |
03/10/22 | CPI Index NSA | 283.7 | 283.716 | 281.148 | — |
03/10/22 | CPI Core Index SA | 287.95 | 287.878 | 286.431 | — |
03/10/22 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | -2.60% | -1.70% | -1.80% |
03/10/22 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | -2.30% | -3.10% | -3.00% |
03/10/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 217k | 227k | 215k | 216k |
03/10/22 | Continuing Claims | 1450k | 1494k | 1476k | 1469k |
03/10/22 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $2362b | — |
03/10/22 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$212.0b | — | -$310.9b | — |
03/11/22 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 61 | — | 62.8 | — |
03/11/22 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 65.8 | — | 68.2 | — |
03/11/22 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 57 | — | 59.4 | — |
03/11/22 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.10% | — | 4.90% | — |
03/11/22 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
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