March 10, 2023 Headlines

The US economy added 311,000 jobs last month, higher than the median forecast of 225,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.4% as the participation rate increased to 62.5%, while wage growth moderated slightly to +0.2% in February from +0.3% in January. Treasuries rallied while equities rose as investors felt that the data would lead to a 25 bps rather than 50 bps hike at the next FOMC meeting. We’ll get a clearer picture next week with the release of inflation data.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/06/23	Factory Orders	-1.80%	-1.60%	1.80%	1.70%
03/06/23	Factory Orders Ex Trans	1.00%	1.20%	-1.20%	—
03/06/23	Durable Goods Orders	-4.50%	-4.50%	-4.50%	—
03/06/23	Durables Ex Transportation	0.70%	0.80%	0.70%	—
03/06/23	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	0.80%	0.80%	—
03/06/23	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	1.10%	1.10%	—
03/07/23	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.40%	-0.40%	-0.40%	—
03/07/23	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	-0.50%	1.00%	0.00%	-0.20%
03/07/23	Consumer Credit	$25.000b	$14.799b	$11.565b	$10.692b
03/08/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	7.40%	-5.70%	-5.90%
03/08/23	ADP Employment Change	200k	242k	106k	119k
03/08/23	Trade Balance	-$68.7b	-$68.3b	-$67.4b	-$67.2b
03/08/23	Revisions: JOLTS
03/08/23	JOLTS Job Openings	10546k	10824k	11012k	11234k
03/08/23	Fed Releases Beige Book
03/09/23	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	410.10%	440.00%	—
03/09/23	Initial Jobless Claims	195k	211k	190k	—
03/09/23	Continuing Claims	1660k	1718k	1655k	1649k
03/09/23	Household Change in Net Worth	—	$2927b	-$392b	-$1294b
03/10/23	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	-34k	—	—
03/10/23	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	225k	311k	517k	504k
03/10/23	Change in Private Payrolls	215k	265k	443k	386k
03/10/23	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	10k	-4k	19k	13k
03/10/23	Unemployment Rate	3.40%	3.60%	3.40%	—
03/10/23	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.30%	—
03/10/23	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.70%	4.60%	4.40%	—
03/10/23	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	34.5	34.7	34.6
03/10/23	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.40%	62.50%	62.40%	—
03/10/23	Underemployment Rate	—	6.80%	6.60%	—
03/10/23	Monthly Budget Statement	-$263.0b	—	-$216.6b	—

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