A modestly improved tone in risk markets overnight is pushing Treasury prices lower this morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared on “60 Minutes” last night, and his comments were largely in line with recent Fed communications. Some market participants suggested Powell might use the platform to announce a notable shift in Fed policy (e.g., average inflation targeting), but no such announcement occurred. Powell did say he would be watching this morning’s retail sales report (January) closely. The December report showed the biggest drop in retail sales in nine years. The February CPI report will be released tomorrow, and the last Fedspeak allowed ahead of the March 20 FOMC meeting will occur later today (Powell) and tomorrow morning (Brainard).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/11/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%0.20%-1.20%-1.60%
3/11/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.90%-1.80%-2.10%
3/11/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%1.20%-1.40%-1.60%
3/11/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.60%1.10%-1.70%-2.30%
3/11/2019Business Inventories0.60%0.60%-0.10%0.00%
3/12/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism102.5101.2
3/12/2019CPI MoM0.20%0.00%
3/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
3/12/2019CPI YoY1.60%1.60%
3/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.20%
3/12/2019CPI Core Index SA261.193260.701
3/12/2019CPI Index NSA252.817251.712
3/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.90%
3/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.70%1.60%
3/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
3/13/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%-0.10%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
3/13/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.90%2.00%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.60%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%
3/13/2019Durable Goods Orders-0.50%
3/13/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.10%
3/13/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%
3/13/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
3/13/2019Construction Spending MoM0.40%-0.60%
3/14/2019Import Price Index MoM0.30%-0.50%
3/14/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.70%
3/14/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.50%-1.70%
3/14/2019Export Price Index MoM0.10%-0.60%
3/14/2019Export Price Index YoY-0.20%
3/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k223k
3/14/2019Continuing Claims1763k1755k
3/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.1
3/14/2019New Home Sales MoM0.20%3.70%
3/14/2019New Home Sales622k621k
3/15/2019Empire Manufacturing108.8
3/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.40%-0.60%
3/15/2019Capacity Utilization78.50%78.20%
3/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%-0.90%
3/15/2019JOLTS Job Openings72257335
3/15/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment95.693.8
3/15/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112108.5
3/15/2019U. of Mich. Expectations88.184.4
3/15/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
3/15/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%
3/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows-$48.3b
3/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$33.1b