A modestly improved tone in risk markets overnight is pushing Treasury prices lower this morning. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared on “60 Minutes” last night, and his comments were largely in line with recent Fed communications. Some market participants suggested Powell might use the platform to announce a notable shift in Fed policy (e.g., average inflation targeting), but no such announcement occurred. Powell did say he would be watching this morning’s retail sales report (January) closely. The December report showed the biggest drop in retail sales in nine years. The February CPI report will be released tomorrow, and the last Fedspeak allowed ahead of the March 20 FOMC meeting will occur later today (Powell) and tomorrow morning (Brainard).
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/11/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.00% | 0.20% | -1.20% | -1.60% |
| 3/11/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | 0.90% | -1.80% | -2.10% |
| 3/11/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.60% | 1.20% | -1.40% | -1.60% |
| 3/11/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.60% | 1.10% | -1.70% | -2.30% |
| 3/11/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | 0.60% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 3/12/2019 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 102.5 | — | 101.2 | — |
| 3/12/2019 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/12/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/12/2019 | CPI YoY | 1.60% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 3/12/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 3/12/2019 | CPI Core Index SA | 261.193 | — | 260.701 | — |
| 3/12/2019 | CPI Index NSA | 252.817 | — | 251.712 | — |
| 3/12/2019 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 3/12/2019 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.70% | 1.60% |
| 3/13/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.50% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.90% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 3/13/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -0.50% | — | — | — |
| 3/13/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 3/13/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | — | — |
| 3/13/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | — | — |
| 3/13/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.50% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 223k | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1763k | — | 1755k | — |
| 3/14/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 62.1 | — |
| 3/14/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 3.70% | — |
| 3/14/2019 | New Home Sales | 622k | — | 621k | — |
| 3/15/2019 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | — | 8.8 | — |
| 3/15/2019 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 3/15/2019 | Capacity Utilization | 78.50% | — | 78.20% | — |
| 3/15/2019 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.10% | — | -0.90% | — |
| 3/15/2019 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7225 | — | 7335 | — |
| 3/15/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95.6 | — | 93.8 | — |
| 3/15/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 112 | — | 108.5 | — |
| 3/15/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 88.1 | — | 84.4 | — |
| 3/15/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 3/15/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 3/15/2019 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$48.3b | — |
| 3/15/2019 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$33.1b | — |