March 12, 2020 Headlines

Financial markets are not responding well to President Trump’s speech from last night. U.S. equity futures traded limit down overnight are currently more than 5% lower ahead of the open. Treasury yields are 15-20 bps lower, and broad commodity prices are lower on the day, including a 7% decline in oil futures. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) refinance applications index surged 78.6% for the weekend ended March 6 to the highest level since 2009 (eclipsed 2012-2013 levels). The survey reported a 30-year contract rate of 3.47%, matching a record low. Originators will be stressed to meet this demand shock, particularly with COVID-19 impacting staffing and operations, and as such, the primary/secondary mortgage spread remains historically wide.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
3/10/2020	NFIB Small Business Optimism	102.9	104.5	104.3	—
3/11/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	55.40%	15.10%	—
3/11/2020	CPI MoM	0.00%	0.10%	0.10%	—
3/11/2020	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	—
3/11/2020	CPI YoY	2.20%	2.30%	2.50%	—
3/11/2020	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	2.40%	2.30%	—
3/11/2020	CPI Index NSA	258.455	258.678	257.971	—
3/11/2020	CPI Core Index SA	266.913	267.07	266.476	—
3/11/2020	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	0.70%	0.00%	—
3/11/2020	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	0.60%	0.60%	0.50%
3/11/2020	Monthly Budget Statement	-$236.8b	-$235.3b	-$234.0b	—
3/12/2020	PPI Final Demand MoM	-0.10%	-0.60%	0.50%	—
3/12/2020	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.10%	-0.30%	0.50%	—
3/12/2020	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.10%	-0.10%	0.40%	—
3/12/2020	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.80%	1.30%	2.10%	—
3/12/2020	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	1.70%	1.40%	1.70%	—
3/12/2020	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	1.50%	1.40%	1.50%	—
3/12/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	211k	216k	215k
3/12/2020	Continuing Claims	1733k	1722k	1729k	1733k
3/12/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	62.7	63	—
3/12/2020	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$574b	—
3/13/2020	Import Price Index MoM	-1.00%	—	0.00%	—
3/13/2020	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
3/13/2020	Import Price Index YoY	-1.50%	—	0.30%	—
3/13/2020	Export Price Index MoM	-0.40%	—	0.70%	—
3/13/2020	Export Price Index YoY	-0.60%	—	0.50%	—
3/13/2020	Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
3/13/2020	U. of Mich. Sentiment	95	—	101	—
3/13/2020	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	114.8	—
3/13/2020	U. of Mich. Expectations	88.1	—	92.1	—
3/13/2020	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	2.40%	—	2.40%	—
3/13/2020	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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