March 12, 2020 Headlines

Financial markets are not responding well to President Trump’s speech from last night. U.S. equity futures traded limit down overnight are currently more than 5% lower ahead of the open. Treasury yields are 15-20 bps lower, and broad commodity prices are lower on the day, including a 7% decline in oil futures. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) refinance applications index surged 78.6% for the weekend ended March 6 to the highest level since 2009 (eclipsed 2012-2013 levels). The survey reported a 30-year contract rate of 3.47%, matching a record low. Originators will be stressed to meet this demand shock, particularly with COVID-19 impacting staffing and operations, and as such, the primary/secondary mortgage spread remains historically wide.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/10/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism102.9104.5104.3—
3/11/2020MBA Mortgage Applications—55.40%15.10%—
3/11/2020CPI MoM0.00%0.10%0.10%—
3/11/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%—
3/11/2020CPI YoY2.20%2.30%2.50%—
3/11/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.40%2.30%—
3/11/2020CPI Index NSA258.455258.678257.971—
3/11/2020CPI Core Index SA266.913267.07266.476—
3/11/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.70%0.00%—
3/11/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—0.60%0.60%0.50%
3/11/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$236.8b-$235.3b-$234.0b—
3/12/2020PPI Final Demand MoM-0.10%-0.60%0.50%—
3/12/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%-0.30%0.50%—
3/12/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.10%-0.10%0.40%—
3/12/2020PPI Final Demand YoY1.80%1.30%2.10%—
3/12/2020PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.40%1.70%—
3/12/2020PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.50%1.40%1.50%—
3/12/2020Initial Jobless Claims220k211k216k215k
3/12/2020Continuing Claims1733k1722k1729k1733k
3/12/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—62.763—
3/12/2020Household Change in Net Worth——$574b—
3/13/2020Import Price Index MoM-1.00%—0.00%—
3/13/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—0.20%—
3/13/2020Import Price Index YoY-1.50%—0.30%—
3/13/2020Export Price Index MoM-0.40%—0.70%—
3/13/2020Export Price Index YoY-0.60%—0.50%—
3/13/2020Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
3/13/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment95—101—
3/13/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.8—114.8—
3/13/2020U. of Mich. Expectations88.1—92.1—
3/13/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%—2.40%—
3/13/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.30%—

 

 

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