Financial markets are not responding well to President Trump’s speech from last night. U.S. equity futures traded limit down overnight are currently more than 5% lower ahead of the open. Treasury yields are 15-20 bps lower, and broad commodity prices are lower on the day, including a 7% decline in oil futures. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) refinance applications index surged 78.6% for the weekend ended March 6 to the highest level since 2009 (eclipsed 2012-2013 levels). The survey reported a 30-year contract rate of 3.47%, matching a record low. Originators will be stressed to meet this demand shock, particularly with COVID-19 impacting staffing and operations, and as such, the primary/secondary mortgage spread remains historically wide.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/10/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 102.9 | 104.5 | 104.3 | — |
3/11/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 55.40% | 15.10% | — |
3/11/2020 | CPI MoM | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
3/11/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
3/11/2020 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.50% | — |
3/11/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.40% | 2.30% | — |
3/11/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 258.455 | 258.678 | 257.971 | — |
3/11/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 266.913 | 267.07 | 266.476 | — |
3/11/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.70% | 0.00% | — |
3/11/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
3/11/2020 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$236.8b | -$235.3b | -$234.0b | — |
3/12/2020 | PPI Final Demand MoM | -0.10% | -0.60% | 0.50% | — |
3/12/2020 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | -0.30% | 0.50% | — |
3/12/2020 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.40% | — |
3/12/2020 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.80% | 1.30% | 2.10% | — |
3/12/2020 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.70% | 1.40% | 1.70% | — |
3/12/2020 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 1.50% | 1.40% | 1.50% | — |
3/12/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 211k | 216k | 215k |
3/12/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1733k | 1722k | 1729k | 1733k |
3/12/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 62.7 | 63 | — |
3/12/2020 | Household Change in Net Worth | — | — | $574b | — |
3/13/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | -1.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
3/13/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
3/13/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | -1.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
3/13/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.40% | — | 0.70% | — |
3/13/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | -0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
3/13/2020 | Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey | ||||
3/13/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95 | — | 101 | — |
3/13/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 112.8 | — | 114.8 | — |
3/13/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 88.1 | — | 92.1 | — |
3/13/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
3/13/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
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