Treasuries initially sold off overnight on reports that U.K. Prime Minister May had secured concessions from Brussels that improved the chances of a successful Brexit. However, the positive tone in risk markets quickly reversed later in the session when the U.K. Attorney General poured cold water on the legality of May’s “improvements.” Treasury prices are now higher on the day, and a tamer than expected inflation report is providing more fuel for a rally in bonds.

Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m in February, as expected, but core CPI rose just 0.1% from the prior month (0.2% expected). On a year-over-year basis, the core measure slowed to 2.1% for the first time since October. The downside surprise in core prices was largely attributable to lower prices for autos and prescription drugs, and as it relates to monetary policy, a tamer inflation report gives Fed leaders more reason to be “patient” in determining the next policy action.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/11/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%0.20%-1.20%-1.60%
3/11/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.90%-1.80%-2.10%
3/11/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%1.20%-1.40%-1.60%
3/11/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.60%1.10%-1.70%-2.30%
3/11/2019Business Inventories0.60%0.60%-0.10%0.00%
3/12/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism102.5101.7101.2
3/12/2019CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.00%
3/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
3/12/2019CPI YoY1.60%1.50%1.60%
3/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.10%2.20%
3/12/2019CPI Core Index SA261.193260.989260.701
3/12/2019CPI Index NSA252.866252.776251.712
3/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.60%1.90%
3/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.90%1.70%1.60%
3/13/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
3/13/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%-0.10%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%
3/13/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.90%2.00%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.60%
3/13/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%
3/13/2019Durable Goods Orders-0.50%
3/13/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.10%
3/13/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%
3/13/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
3/13/2019Construction Spending MoM0.50%-0.60%
3/14/2019Import Price Index MoM0.30%-0.50%
3/14/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.70%
3/14/2019Import Price Index YoY-1.50%-1.70%
3/14/2019Export Price Index MoM0.10%-0.60%
3/14/2019Export Price Index YoY-0.20%
3/14/2019Initial Jobless Claims225k223k
3/14/2019Continuing Claims1763k1755k
3/14/2019Bloomberg March United States Economic Survey
3/14/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.1
3/14/2019New Home Sales MoM0.20%3.70%
3/14/2019New Home Sales622k621k
3/15/2019Empire Manufacturing108.8
3/15/2019Industrial Production MoM0.40%-0.60%
3/15/2019Capacity Utilization78.50%78.20%
3/15/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%-0.90%
3/15/2019JOLTS Job Openings72257335
3/15/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment95.693.8
3/15/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112108.5
3/15/2019U. of Mich. Expectations88.184.4
3/15/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
3/15/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%
3/15/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows-$48.3b
3/15/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$33.1b