Treasuries are 3-4 basis points lower (unchanged from yesterday’s levels) after CPI data came in-line with street expectations at 0.2% MoM, 2.2% YoY, indicating that inflation is gradually picking up without any notable acceleration. The pace of inflation is within Fed expectations, making a stronger case for three rate hikes this year as opposed to four. Equities futures are rallying with S&P futures up 10 points despite looming trade war threats caused by Trump’s aluminum and steel tariffs.  Tillerson is also now out as Secretary of State and is being replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo. This was somewhat expected as Tillerson clashed with Trump on a fair amount of key national-security issues throughout his term (withdrawing from Paris climate accord, Trump administration’s talks with North Korea, etc…).

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
03/13/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107.1107.6106.9
03/13/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.50%
03/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
03/13/2018CPI YoY2.20%2.20%2.10%
03/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.80%1.80%1.80%
03/13/2018CPI Index NSA248.933248.991247.867
03/13/2018CPI Core Index SA255.8255.751255.287
03/13/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.60%0.40%
03/13/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.80%
03/14/2018MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%-0.30%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.00%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%-0.20%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.00%
03/14/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.40%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%
03/14/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%2.70%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.20%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%
03/14/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.40%
03/15/2018Empire Manufacturing1513.1
03/15/2018Import Price Index MoM0.20%1.00%
03/15/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.50%
03/15/2018Import Price Index YoY3.50%3.60%
03/15/2018Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.80%
03/15/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%
03/15/2018Initial Jobless Claims228k231k
03/15/2018Continuing Claims1903k1870k
03/15/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2325.8
03/15/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.8
03/15/2018Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
03/15/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7272
03/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows-$119.3b
03/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$27.3b
03/16/2018Housing Starts1290k1326k
03/16/2018Housing Starts MoM-2.70%9.70%
03/16/2018Building Permits1320k1396k
03/16/2018Building Permits MoM-4.10%7.40%
03/16/2018Industrial Production MoM0.40%-0.10%
03/16/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.50%0.00%
03/16/2018Capacity Utilization77.70%77.50%
03/16/2018JOLTS Job Openings59005811
03/16/2018Revisions: JOLTS
03/16/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment99.299.7
03/16/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9
03/16/2018U. of Mich. Expectations90
03/16/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
03/16/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%