Treasuries are 3-4 basis points lower (unchanged from yesterday’s levels) after CPI data came in-line with street expectations at 0.2% MoM, 2.2% YoY, indicating that inflation is gradually picking up without any notable acceleration. The pace of inflation is within Fed expectations, making a stronger case for three rate hikes this year as opposed to four. Equities futures are rallying with S&P futures up 10 points despite looming trade war threats caused by Trump’s aluminum and steel tariffs. Tillerson is also now out as Secretary of State and is being replaced by CIA Director Mike Pompeo. This was somewhat expected as Tillerson clashed with Trump on a fair amount of key national-security issues throughout his term (withdrawing from Paris climate accord, Trump administration’s talks with North Korea, etc…).
Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 03/13/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107.1 | 107.6 | 106.9 |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.80% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 248.933 | 248.991 | 247.867 |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 255.8 | 255.751 | 255.287 |
| 03/13/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 03/13/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 03/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.30% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.00% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | -0.20% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.00% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.70% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.20% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.50% |
| 03/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.40% |
| 03/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | — | 13.1 |
| 03/15/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.00% |
| 03/15/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 03/15/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.50% | — | 3.60% |
| 03/15/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.80% |
| 03/15/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% |
| 03/15/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 231k |
| 03/15/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1903k | — | 1870k |
| 03/15/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 23 | — | 25.8 |
| 03/15/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.8 |
| 03/15/2018 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 03/15/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 72 |
| 03/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$119.3b |
| 03/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $27.3b |
| 03/16/2018 | Housing Starts | 1290k | — | 1326k |
| 03/16/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.70% | — | 9.70% |
| 03/16/2018 | Building Permits | 1320k | — | 1396k |
| 03/16/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -4.10% | — | 7.40% |
| 03/16/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 03/16/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.00% |
| 03/16/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 77.70% | — | 77.50% |
| 03/16/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 5900 | — | 5811 |
| 03/16/2018 | Revisions: JOLTS | |||
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.2 | — | 99.7 |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90 |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |