March 14, 2022 Headlines

Optimism surrounding ongoing Russia/Ukraine cease-fire negotiations is fueling a risk-on trade that has Treasury yields down another 6-9 basis points to start the week. Additionally, fresh Covid outbreaks in China has led the government to institute lockdowns in whole regions of the country, leading to more supply-chain worries. Beyond the conflict in Ukraine, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to announce the first increase in the fed funds target range since 2018, but more important for market participants will be any guidance on future plans. Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues have been hesitant to provide firm forward guidance to this point because the course of inflation remains uncertain, and the events in Eastern Europe have only added to this uncertainty, particularly as it relates to food and energy inflation. Powell will likely do his best to not limit their options looking forward.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/15/22Empire Manufacturing6.53.1
03/15/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.90%1.00%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.60%0.80%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.60%0.90%
03/15/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.00%9.70%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.70%8.30%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY7.30%6.90%
03/15/22Net Long-term TIC Flows1.15E+11
03/15/22Total Net TIC Flows-5.24E+10
03/16/22MBA Mortgage Applications8.50%
03/16/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%3.80%
03/16/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.90%3.30%
03/16/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%3.80%
03/16/22Retail Sales Control Group0.30%4.80%
03/16/22Import Price Index MoM1.60%2.00%
03/16/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.70%1.40%
03/16/22Import Price Index YoY11.30%10.80%
03/16/22Export Price Index MoM1.20%2.90%
03/16/22Export Price Index YoY15.10%
03/16/22Business Inventories1.10%2.10%
03/16/22NAHB Housing Market Index8182
03/16/22FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.25%0.00%
03/16/22FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.50%0.25%
03/16/22Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.40%0.15%
03/17/22Housing Starts1.70E+061.64E+06
03/17/22Building Permits1.85E+061.90E+061.90E+06
03/17/22Housing Starts MoM3.80%-4.10%
03/17/22Building Permits MoM-2.40%0.70%0.50%
03/17/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1516
03/17/22Initial Jobless Claims220000227000
03/17/22Continuing Claims1.48E+061.49E+06
03/17/22Industrial Production MoM0.50%1.40%
03/17/22Capacity Utilization77.90%77.60%
03/17/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production1.00%0.20%
03/18/22Existing Home Sales6.10E+066.50E+06
03/18/22Existing Home Sales MoM-6.20%6.70%
03/18/22Leading Index0.30%-0.30%


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