March 14, 2023 Headlines

Core CPI rose by more than expected in February, increasing by 0.5% vs the median forecast of 0.4%. Headline CPI rose by 0.4% and was up 6% YoY. Rising shelter costs were the largest contributor to the increase, accounting for over 70% of the rise in the headline number. Today’s print puts the Fed in a tough spot as up until the recent bank failures, the Fed had been able to raise rates without hindering the economy. After the release the 2-year rose to a high of 4.372% but has since retraced that level a bit and is sitting around 4.22% currently.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/14/23	NFIB Small Business Optimism	90.3	90.9	90.3	—
03/14/23	CPI MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.50%	—
03/14/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%	—
03/14/23	CPI YoY	6.00%	6.00%	6.40%	—
03/14/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.50%	5.50%	5.60%	—
03/14/23	CPI Index NSA	300.881	300.84	299.17	—
03/14/23	CPI Core Index SA	303.736	304.07	302.702	—
03/14/23	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-1.30%	-1.80%	-1.90%
03/14/23	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-1.90%	-1.50%	-1.90%
03/15/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	7.40%	—
03/15/23	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.30%	—	0.70%	—
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.30%	—	0.60%	—
03/15/23	PPI Final Demand YoY	5.40%	—	6.00%	—
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.20%	—	5.40%	—
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	4.80%	—	4.50%	—
03/15/23	Empire Manufacturing	-7.8	—	-5.8	—
03/15/23	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.40%	—	3.00%	—
03/15/23	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.00%	—	2.30%	—
03/15/23	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.20%	—	2.60%	—
03/15/23	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.30%	—	1.70%	—
03/15/23	Business Inventories	0.00%	—	0.30%	—
03/15/23	NAHB Housing Market Index	40	—	42	—
03/15/23	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$152.8b	—
03/15/23	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$28.6b	—
03/16/23	Initial Jobless Claims	205k	—	211k	—
03/16/23	Import Price Index MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
03/16/23	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
03/16/23	Import Price Index YoY	-1.10%	—	0.80%	—
03/16/23	Export Price Index MoM	-0.30%	—	0.80%	—
03/16/23	Continuing Claims	1709k	—	1718k	—
03/16/23	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	2.30%	—
03/16/23	Housing Starts	1310k	—	1309k	—
03/16/23	Building Permits	1343k	—	1339k	—
03/16/23	Housing Starts MoM	0.10%	—	-4.50%	—
03/16/23	Building Permits MoM	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
03/16/23	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-15	—	-24.3	—
03/16/23	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	—	-12.8	—
03/17/23	Industrial Production MoM	0.20%	—	0.00%	—
03/17/23	Capacity Utilization	78.40%	—	78.30%	—
03/17/23	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.30%	—	1.00%	—
03/17/23	Leading Index	-0.30%	—	-0.30%	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	67	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70	—	70.7	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	64.9	—	64.7	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.10%	—	4.10%	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—

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