March 14, 2023 Headlines

Core CPI rose by more than expected in February, increasing by 0.5% vs the median forecast of 0.4%. Headline CPI rose by 0.4% and was up 6% YoY. Rising shelter costs were the largest contributor to the increase, accounting for over 70% of the rise in the headline number. Today’s print puts the Fed in a tough spot as up until the recent bank failures, the Fed had been able to raise rates without hindering the economy. After the release the 2-year rose to a high of 4.372% but has since retraced that level a bit and is sitting around 4.22% currently.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

03/14/23NFIB Small Business Optimism90.390.990.3
03/14/23CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.50%
03/14/23CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.50%0.40%
03/14/23CPI YoY6.00%6.00%6.40%
03/14/23CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.50%5.50%5.60%
03/14/23CPI Index NSA300.881300.84299.17
03/14/23CPI Core Index SA303.736304.07302.702
03/14/23Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.30%-1.80%-1.90%
03/14/23Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.90%-1.50%-1.90%
03/15/23MBA Mortgage Applications7.40%
03/15/23PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.70%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.50%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.60%
03/15/23PPI Final Demand YoY5.40%6.00%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.20%5.40%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.80%4.50%
03/15/23Empire Manufacturing-7.8-5.8
03/15/23Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%3.00%
03/15/23Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%2.30%
03/15/23Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%2.60%
03/15/23Retail Sales Control Group-0.30%1.70%
03/15/23Business Inventories0.00%0.30%
03/15/23NAHB Housing Market Index4042
03/15/23Net Long-term TIC Flows$152.8b
03/15/23Total Net TIC Flows$28.6b
03/16/23Initial Jobless Claims205k211k
03/16/23Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.20%
03/16/23Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.20%
03/16/23Import Price Index YoY-1.10%0.80%
03/16/23Export Price Index MoM-0.30%0.80%
03/16/23Continuing Claims1709k1718k
03/16/23Export Price Index YoY2.30%
03/16/23Housing Starts1310k1309k
03/16/23Building Permits1343k1339k
03/16/23Housing Starts MoM0.10%-4.50%
03/16/23Building Permits MoM0.10%0.10%
03/16/23Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-15-24.3
03/16/23New York Fed Services Business Activity-12.8
03/17/23Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.00%
03/17/23Capacity Utilization78.40%78.30%
03/17/23Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.30%1.00%
03/17/23Leading Index-0.30%-0.30%
03/17/23U. of Mich. Sentiment6767
03/17/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions7070.7
03/17/23U. of Mich. Expectations64.964.7
03/17/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.10%
03/17/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%

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