Treasuries are slightly lower following a weak retail sales print at -0.1% vs 0.3% MoM street consensus and an in-line PPI at 0.2% MoM, 2.8% YoY. Equities tumbled yesterday with the Dow dropping -171 points on the news of Tillerson’s firing as investors believe this advances Trump’s agenda of imposing tariffs. Replacing him is CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who has taken a less China-friendly stance than Tillerson, also worrying investors. Equity futures are positive, however, with Chinese data being the catalyst (factory output and fixed asset investment increasing 7.2% and 7.9% YoY, respectively). In other news, Draghi gave a speech recently stating that he sees inflation converging towards their target of 2% over the medium term and plans to proceed monetary policy at a measured pace.
Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group
Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
03/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$216.0b | -$215.2b | -$192.0b |
03/13/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107.1 | 107.6 | 106.9 |
03/13/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
03/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
03/13/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
03/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.80% |
03/13/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 248.933 | 248.991 | 247.867 |
03/13/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 255.8 | 255.751 | 255.287 |
03/13/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.40% |
03/13/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.80% |
03/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.90% | 0.30% |
03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.30% |
03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
03/14/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
03/14/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.70% |
03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.20% |
03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.70% | 2.50% |
03/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.40% |
03/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | — | 13.1 |
03/15/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.00% |
03/15/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
03/15/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.50% | — | 3.60% |
03/15/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.80% |
03/15/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% |
03/15/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | — | 231k |
03/15/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1903k | — | 1870k |
03/15/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 23 | — | 25.8 |
03/15/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.8 |
03/15/2018 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | |||
03/15/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 72 |
03/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$119.3b |
03/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $27.3b |
03/16/2018 | Housing Starts | 1290k | — | 1326k |
03/16/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.70% | — | 9.70% |
03/16/2018 | Building Permits | 1320k | — | 1396k |
03/16/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -4.10% | — | 7.40% |
03/16/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
03/16/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.00% |
03/16/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 77.70% | — | 77.50% |
03/16/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 5900 | — | 5811 |
03/16/2018 | Revisions: JOLTS | |||
03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.2 | — | 99.7 |
03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 |
03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90 |
03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |
03/21/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.90% |
03/21/2018 | Current Account Balance | — | — | -$100.6b |
03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.42m | — | 5.38m |
03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.70% | — | -3.20% |
03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.50% |
03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.25% |