Treasuries are slightly lower following a weak retail sales print at -0.1% vs 0.3% MoM street consensus and an in-line PPI at 0.2% MoM, 2.8% YoY. Equities tumbled yesterday with the Dow dropping -171 points on the news of Tillerson’s firing as investors believe this advances Trump’s agenda of imposing tariffs. Replacing him is CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who has taken a less China-friendly stance than Tillerson, also worrying investors. Equity futures are positive, however, with Chinese data being the catalyst (factory output and fixed asset investment increasing 7.2% and 7.9% YoY, respectively). In other news, Draghi gave a speech recently stating that he sees inflation converging towards their target of 2% over the medium term and plans to proceed monetary policy at a measured pace.

Eric Kruglak
Senior Associate, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
03/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$216.0b-$215.2b-$192.0b
03/13/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107.1107.6106.9
03/13/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.50%
03/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
03/13/2018CPI YoY2.20%2.20%2.10%
03/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.80%1.80%1.80%
03/13/2018CPI Index NSA248.933248.991247.867
03/13/2018CPI Core Index SA255.8255.751255.287
03/13/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.60%0.40%
03/13/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.80%
03/14/2018MBA Mortgage Applications0.90%0.30%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%-0.10%-0.30%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.20%0.00%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.30%-0.20%
03/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.10%0.00%
03/14/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.20%0.40%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
03/14/2018PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%2.80%2.70%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.50%2.20%
03/14/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.50%
03/14/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.40%
03/15/2018Empire Manufacturing1513.1
03/15/2018Import Price Index MoM0.20%1.00%
03/15/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.50%
03/15/2018Import Price Index YoY3.50%3.60%
03/15/2018Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.80%
03/15/2018Export Price Index YoY3.40%
03/15/2018Initial Jobless Claims228k231k
03/15/2018Continuing Claims1903k1870k
03/15/2018Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2325.8
03/15/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.8
03/15/2018Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
03/15/2018NAHB Housing Market Index7272
03/15/2018Total Net TIC Flows-$119.3b
03/15/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$27.3b
03/16/2018Housing Starts1290k1326k
03/16/2018Housing Starts MoM-2.70%9.70%
03/16/2018Building Permits1320k1396k
03/16/2018Building Permits MoM-4.10%7.40%
03/16/2018Industrial Production MoM0.40%-0.10%
03/16/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.50%0.00%
03/16/2018Capacity Utilization77.70%77.50%
03/16/2018JOLTS Job Openings59005811
03/16/2018Revisions: JOLTS
03/16/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment99.299.7
03/16/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9
03/16/2018U. of Mich. Expectations90
03/16/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
03/16/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
03/21/2018MBA Mortgage Applications0.90%
03/21/2018Current Account Balance-$100.6b
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales5.42m5.38m
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.70%-3.20%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.50%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.25%