March 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower to start the day following a sharp, six-day sell-off that sent the 5-year yield 45 basis points higher. Front-end yields are down 4-6 bps so far this morning as oil prices fall back below $100/barrel (WTI), alleviating some inflation concerns. There’s also some focus on China and Hong Kong equity markets, which have fallen sharply in recent days on heightened concerns that China might aid Russia militarily and face sanctions from the West. Germany’s ZEW index, which tracks economic sentiment, posted the biggest one-month decline on record in March amid the growing Russia/Ukraine conflict. On a positive note, February producer prices rose less than expected, with the core PPI measure up 0.2% m/m versus 0.6% expected.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/15/22	Empire Manufacturing	6.4	-11.8	3.1	—
03/15/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.90%	0.80%	1.00%	1.20%
03/15/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.60%	0.20%	0.80%	1.00%
03/15/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.60%	0.20%	0.90%	0.80%
03/15/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	10.00%	10.00%	9.70%	10.00%
03/15/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	8.70%	8.40%	8.30%	—
03/15/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	7.30%	6.60%	6.90%	6.80%
03/15/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$114.5b	—
03/15/22	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	-$52.4b	—
03/16/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	8.50%	—
03/16/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.40%	—	3.80%	—
03/16/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.90%	—	3.30%	—
03/16/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	3.80%	—
03/16/22	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	4.80%	—
03/16/22	Import Price Index MoM	1.60%	—	2.00%	—
03/16/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.80%	—	1.40%	—
03/16/22	Import Price Index YoY	11.30%	—	10.80%	—
03/16/22	Export Price Index MoM	1.20%	—	2.90%	—
03/16/22	Export Price Index YoY	14.40%	—	15.10%	—
03/16/22	Business Inventories	1.10%	—	2.10%	—
03/16/22	NAHB Housing Market Index	81	—	82	—
03/16/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.25%	—	0.00%	—
03/16/22	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.50%	—	0.25%	—
03/16/22	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	0.40%	—	0.15%	—
03/17/22	Housing Starts	1700k	—	1638k	—
03/17/22	Building Permits	1850k	—	1899k	1895k
03/17/22	Housing Starts MoM	3.80%	—	-4.10%	—
03/17/22	Building Permits MoM	-2.40%	—	0.70%	0.50%
03/17/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	15	—	16	—
03/17/22	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	227k	—
03/17/22	Continuing Claims	1480k	—	1494k	—
03/17/22	Industrial Production MoM	0.50%	—	1.40%	—
03/17/22	Capacity Utilization	77.90%	—	77.60%	—
03/17/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	1.00%	—	0.20%	—
03/18/22	Existing Home Sales	6.10m	—	6.50m	—
03/18/22	Existing Home Sales MoM	-6.20%	—	6.70%	—
03/18/22	Leading Index	0.30%	—	-0.30%	—

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