March 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower to start the day following a sharp, six-day sell-off that sent the 5-year yield 45 basis points higher. Front-end yields are down 4-6 bps so far this morning as oil prices fall back below $100/barrel (WTI), alleviating some inflation concerns. There’s also some focus on China and Hong Kong equity markets, which have fallen sharply in recent days on heightened concerns that China might aid Russia militarily and face sanctions from the West. Germany’s ZEW index, which tracks economic sentiment, posted the biggest one-month decline on record in March amid the growing Russia/Ukraine conflict.  On a positive note, February producer prices rose less than expected, with the core PPI measure up 0.2% m/m versus 0.6% expected.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/15/22Empire Manufacturing6.4-11.83.1
03/15/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.90%0.80%1.00%1.20%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.60%0.20%0.80%1.00%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.60%0.20%0.90%0.80%
03/15/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.00%10.00%9.70%10.00%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.70%8.40%8.30%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY7.30%6.60%6.90%6.80%
03/15/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$114.5b
03/15/22Total Net TIC Flows-$52.4b
03/16/22MBA Mortgage Applications8.50%
03/16/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%3.80%
03/16/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.90%3.30%
03/16/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%3.80%
03/16/22Retail Sales Control Group0.30%4.80%
03/16/22Import Price Index MoM1.60%2.00%
03/16/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.80%1.40%
03/16/22Import Price Index YoY11.30%10.80%
03/16/22Export Price Index MoM1.20%2.90%
03/16/22Export Price Index YoY14.40%15.10%
03/16/22Business Inventories1.10%2.10%
03/16/22NAHB Housing Market Index8182
03/16/22FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.25%0.00%
03/16/22FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.50%0.25%
03/16/22Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.40%0.15%
03/17/22Housing Starts1700k1638k
03/17/22Building Permits1850k1899k1895k
03/17/22Housing Starts MoM3.80%-4.10%
03/17/22Building Permits MoM-2.40%0.70%0.50%
03/17/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1516
03/17/22Initial Jobless Claims220k227k
03/17/22Continuing Claims1480k1494k
03/17/22Industrial Production MoM0.50%1.40%
03/17/22Capacity Utilization77.90%77.60%
03/17/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production1.00%0.20%
03/18/22Existing Home Sales6.10m6.50m
03/18/22Existing Home Sales MoM-6.20%6.70%
03/18/22Leading Index0.30%-0.30%

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