March 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are rallying this morning on the back of rising concerns over the health of Credit Suisse plus an unexpected drop in PPI.  The 2-year is down 33 bps to 3.925%, its lowest level since September of last year. Credit Suisse shares fell to an all-time low after its largest shareholder, the Saudi National Bank, said it would not increase its stake citing regulatory reasons amongst others.

Inflation showed signs of easing after PPI fell by 0.1% in February. The decline came from falling costs in both goods and services, with declining egg prices leading the way. Today’s release taken in concert with yesterday’s CPI release and recent banking concerns puts the Fed in a tough spot. The inflation picture remains mixed but would likely lead the central bank to raise rates but the recent weakness in the banking system raises concerns over whether or not the overall economy can withstand more hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

03/14/23NFIB Small Business Optimism90.390.990.3
03/14/23CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.50%
03/14/23CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.50%0.40%
03/14/23CPI YoY6.00%6.00%6.40%
03/14/23CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.50%5.50%5.60%
03/14/23CPI Index NSA300.881300.84299.17
03/14/23CPI Core Index SA303.736304.07302.702
03/14/23Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.30%-1.80%-1.90%
03/14/23Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.90%-1.50%-1.90%
03/15/23MBA Mortgage Applications6.50%7.40%
03/15/23PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%-0.10%0.70%0.30%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.00%0.50%0.10%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.20%0.60%0.50%
03/15/23PPI Final Demand YoY5.40%4.60%6.00%5.70%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.20%4.40%5.40%5.00%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.80%4.40%4.50%4.40%
03/15/23Empire Manufacturing-7.9-24.6-5.8
03/15/23Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%-0.40%3.00%3.20%
03/15/23Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%-0.10%2.30%2.40%
03/15/23Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%0.00%2.60%2.80%
03/15/23Retail Sales Control Group-0.30%0.50%1.70%2.30%
03/15/23Business Inventories0.00%0.30%
03/15/23NAHB Housing Market Index4042
03/15/23Net Long-term TIC Flows$152.8b
03/15/23Total Net TIC Flows$28.6b
03/16/23Initial Jobless Claims205k211k
03/16/23Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.20%
03/16/23Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.20%
03/16/23Import Price Index YoY-1.10%0.80%
03/16/23Export Price Index MoM-0.30%0.80%
03/16/23Continuing Claims1709k1718k
03/16/23Export Price Index YoY2.30%
03/16/23Housing Starts1310k1309k
03/16/23Building Permits1345k1339k
03/16/23Housing Starts MoM0.10%-4.50%
03/16/23Building Permits MoM0.50%0.10%
03/16/23Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-15-24.3
03/16/23New York Fed Services Business Activity-12.8
03/17/23Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.00%
03/17/23Capacity Utilization78.40%78.30%
03/17/23Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.30%1.00%
03/17/23Leading Index-0.30%-0.30%
03/17/23U. of Mich. Sentiment6767
03/17/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions7070.7
03/17/23U. of Mich. Expectations64.964.7
03/17/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.10%
03/17/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%

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