March 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are rallying this morning on the back of rising concerns over the health of Credit Suisse plus an unexpected drop in PPI.  The 2-year is down 33 bps to 3.925%, its lowest level since September of last year. Credit Suisse shares fell to an all-time low after its largest shareholder, the Saudi National Bank, said it would not increase its stake citing regulatory reasons amongst others.

Inflation showed signs of easing after PPI fell by 0.1% in February. The decline came from falling costs in both goods and services, with declining egg prices leading the way. Today’s release taken in concert with yesterday’s CPI release and recent banking concerns puts the Fed in a tough spot. The inflation picture remains mixed but would likely lead the central bank to raise rates but the recent weakness in the banking system raises concerns over whether or not the overall economy can withstand more hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
03/14/23 NFIB Small Business Optimism 90.3 90.9 90.3
03/14/23 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
03/14/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%
03/14/23 CPI YoY 6.00% 6.00% 6.40%
03/14/23 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.50% 5.50% 5.60%
03/14/23 CPI Index NSA 300.881 300.84 299.17
03/14/23 CPI Core Index SA 303.736 304.07 302.702
03/14/23 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -1.30% -1.80% -1.90%
03/14/23 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -1.90% -1.50% -1.90%
03/15/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 6.50% 7.40%
03/15/23 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.30% -0.10% 0.70% 0.30%
03/15/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% 0.00% 0.50% 0.10%
03/15/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.30% 0.20% 0.60% 0.50%
03/15/23 PPI Final Demand YoY 5.40% 4.60% 6.00% 5.70%
03/15/23 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.20% 4.40% 5.40% 5.00%
03/15/23 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 4.80% 4.40% 4.50% 4.40%
03/15/23 Empire Manufacturing -7.9 -24.6 -5.8
03/15/23 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.40% -0.40% 3.00% 3.20%
03/15/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM -0.10% -0.10% 2.30% 2.40%
03/15/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -0.20% 0.00% 2.60% 2.80%
03/15/23 Retail Sales Control Group -0.30% 0.50% 1.70% 2.30%
03/15/23 Business Inventories 0.00% 0.30%
03/15/23 NAHB Housing Market Index 40 42
03/15/23 Net Long-term TIC Flows $152.8b
03/15/23 Total Net TIC Flows $28.6b
03/16/23 Initial Jobless Claims 205k 211k
03/16/23 Import Price Index MoM -0.20% -0.20%
03/16/23 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% 0.20%
03/16/23 Import Price Index YoY -1.10% 0.80%
03/16/23 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.80%
03/16/23 Continuing Claims 1709k 1718k
03/16/23 Export Price Index YoY 2.30%
03/16/23 Housing Starts 1310k 1309k
03/16/23 Building Permits 1345k 1339k
03/16/23 Housing Starts MoM 0.10% -4.50%
03/16/23 Building Permits MoM 0.50% 0.10%
03/16/23 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -15 -24.3
03/16/23 New York Fed Services Business Activity -12.8
03/17/23 Industrial Production MoM 0.20% 0.00%
03/17/23 Capacity Utilization 78.40% 78.30%
03/17/23 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.30% 1.00%
03/17/23 Leading Index -0.30% -0.30%
03/17/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 67 67
03/17/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 70 70.7
03/17/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 64.9 64.7
03/17/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.10% 4.10%
03/17/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 2.90%

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