March 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are rallying this morning on the back of rising concerns over the health of Credit Suisse plus an unexpected drop in PPI. The 2-year is down 33 bps to 3.925%, its lowest level since September of last year. Credit Suisse shares fell to an all-time low after its largest shareholder, the Saudi National Bank, said it would not increase its stake citing regulatory reasons amongst others.

Inflation showed signs of easing after PPI fell by 0.1% in February. The decline came from falling costs in both goods and services, with declining egg prices leading the way. Today’s release taken in concert with yesterday’s CPI release and recent banking concerns puts the Fed in a tough spot. The inflation picture remains mixed but would likely lead the central bank to raise rates but the recent weakness in the banking system raises concerns over whether or not the overall economy can withstand more hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/14/23	NFIB Small Business Optimism	90.3	90.9	90.3	—
03/14/23	CPI MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.50%	—
03/14/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%	—
03/14/23	CPI YoY	6.00%	6.00%	6.40%	—
03/14/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.50%	5.50%	5.60%	—
03/14/23	CPI Index NSA	300.881	300.84	299.17	—
03/14/23	CPI Core Index SA	303.736	304.07	302.702	—
03/14/23	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-1.30%	-1.80%	-1.90%
03/14/23	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-1.90%	-1.50%	-1.90%
03/15/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	6.50%	7.40%	—
03/15/23	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.30%	-0.10%	0.70%	0.30%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.00%	0.50%	0.10%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.60%	0.50%
03/15/23	PPI Final Demand YoY	5.40%	4.60%	6.00%	5.70%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.20%	4.40%	5.40%	5.00%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	4.80%	4.40%	4.50%	4.40%
03/15/23	Empire Manufacturing	-7.9	-24.6	-5.8	—
03/15/23	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.40%	-0.40%	3.00%	3.20%
03/15/23	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	-0.10%	-0.10%	2.30%	2.40%
03/15/23	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.20%	0.00%	2.60%	2.80%
03/15/23	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.30%	0.50%	1.70%	2.30%
03/15/23	Business Inventories	0.00%	—	0.30%	—
03/15/23	NAHB Housing Market Index	40	—	42	—
03/15/23	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$152.8b	—
03/15/23	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$28.6b	—
03/16/23	Initial Jobless Claims	205k	—	211k	—
03/16/23	Import Price Index MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
03/16/23	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.10%	—	0.20%	—
03/16/23	Import Price Index YoY	-1.10%	—	0.80%	—
03/16/23	Export Price Index MoM	-0.30%	—	0.80%	—
03/16/23	Continuing Claims	1709k	—	1718k	—
03/16/23	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	2.30%	—
03/16/23	Housing Starts	1310k	—	1309k	—
03/16/23	Building Permits	1345k	—	1339k	—
03/16/23	Housing Starts MoM	0.10%	—	-4.50%	—
03/16/23	Building Permits MoM	0.50%	—	0.10%	—
03/16/23	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-15	—	-24.3	—
03/16/23	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	—	-12.8	—
03/17/23	Industrial Production MoM	0.20%	—	0.00%	—
03/17/23	Capacity Utilization	78.40%	—	78.30%	—
03/17/23	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.30%	—	1.00%	—
03/17/23	Leading Index	-0.30%	—	-0.30%	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	67	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70	—	70.7	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	64.9	—	64.7	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.10%	—	4.10%	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—

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