Treasuries are little changed this morning following back-and-forth trading overnight (better buying from Asia and better selling from Europe). Equity markets are fairly quiet today as well, with S&P 500 futures currently unchanged. The Senate voted 67-31 yesterday to pass a bill that would revamp some of the post-crisis restrictions of Dodd-Frank. This included support from moderate Democrats, and following some small adjustments, the legislation is also expected to pass in the House. The bill includes an increase in the threshold for “too big to fail” banks from $50 billion to $250 billion, and depositories with less than $10 billion assets would be exempt from Volcker Rule compliance. The markets were expecting the Senate to pass the bill, so there wasn’t much of a reaction to the headline. The current focus seems to be centered much more on trade negotiations and next week’s Fed meeting than anything else, particularly for equity investors.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 03/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$216.0b | -$215.2b | -$192.0b |
| 03/13/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107.1 | 107.6 | 106.9 |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.80% |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 248.933 | 248.991 | 247.867 |
| 03/13/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 255.8 | 255.751 | 255.287 |
| 03/13/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 03/13/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 03/14/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.90% | 0.30% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.30% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 03/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.70% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.20% |
| 03/14/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.70% | 2.50% |
| 03/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 03/15/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | 22.5 | 13.1 |
| 03/15/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 1.00% |
| 03/15/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 03/15/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.60% |
| 03/15/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.80% |
| 03/15/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.30% | 3.40% |
| 03/15/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 226k | 231k |
| 03/15/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1903k | 1879k | 1870k |
| 03/15/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 23 | 22.3 | 25.8 |
| 03/15/2018 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 03/15/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.8 |
| 03/15/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | — | 72 |
| 03/15/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$119.3b |
| 03/15/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $27.3b |
| 03/16/2018 | Housing Starts | 1290k | — | 1326k |
| 03/16/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.70% | — | 9.70% |
| 03/16/2018 | Building Permits | 1320k | — | 1396k |
| 03/16/2018 | Building Permits MoM | -4.10% | — | 7.40% |
| 03/16/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 03/16/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | 0.00% |
| 03/16/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 77.70% | — | 77.50% |
| 03/16/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 5900 | — | 5811 |
| 03/16/2018 | Revisions: JOLTS | |||
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.2 | — | 99.7 |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90 |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 03/16/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |
| 03/21/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.90% |
| 03/21/2018 | Current Account Balance | — | — | -$100.6b |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.46m | — | 5.38m |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.50% | — | -3.20% |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.50% |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.25% |
| 03/22/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 226k |
| 03/22/2018 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1879k |
| 03/22/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.30% |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 54.5 |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | — |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 55.3 |
| 03/22/2018 | Leading Index | 0.40% | — | 1.00% |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | — | — | 55.9 |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.8 |
| 03/22/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 17 |