March 16, 2021 Headlines

Both Treasuries and equity futures are little changed following the release of the February retail sales report. Advance sales fell 3% in February, well below expectations of a 0.5% decline and the worst monthly data since last April. The control group figure, which is used in the GDP calculation, was even worse at -3.5% in February. While these are very large declines for a single month, they were almost entirely offset by big upward revisions to the January data that was already incredibly strong. The January control group sales figure was revised higher from 6% to 8.7% month-over-month. These are indeed abnormal times. The February data was presumably impacted by the severe winter storms, and looking ahead, the direct stimulus payments from the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan should quickly filter through to sales data for March and April.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
3/16/2021 Import Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.30% 1.40%
3/16/2021 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.40% 0.50% 0.90%
3/16/2021 Import Price Index YoY 2.60% 3.00% 0.90% 1.00%
3/16/2021 Export Price Index MoM 1.00% 1.60% 2.50%
3/16/2021 Export Price Index YoY 4.40% 5.20% 2.30%
3/16/2021 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.50% -3.00% 5.30% 7.60%
3/16/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% -2.70% 5.90% 8.30%
3/16/2021 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -0.50% -3.30% 6.10% 8.50%
3/16/2021 Retail Sales Control Group -0.60% -3.50% 6.00% 8.70%
3/16/2021 Industrial Production MoM 0.30% 0.90%
3/16/2021 Capacity Utilization 75.50% 75.60%
3/16/2021 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% 1.00%
3/16/2021 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.60%
3/16/2021 NAHB Housing Market Index 84 84
3/17/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.30%
3/17/2021 Building Permits MoM -7.20% 10.40% 10.70%
3/17/2021 Building Permits 1750k 1881k 1886k
3/17/2021 Housing Starts 1562k 1580k
3/17/2021 Housing Starts MoM -1.10% -6.00%
3/17/2021 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00%
3/17/2021 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25%
3/17/2021 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10%
3/18/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 700k 712k
3/18/2021 Continuing Claims 4034k 4144k
3/18/2021 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 23 23.1
3/18/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort 49.4
3/18/2021 Leading Index 0.30% 0.50%

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