March 16, 2021 Headlines

Both Treasuries and equity futures are little changed following the release of the February retail sales report. Advance sales fell 3% in February, well below expectations of a 0.5% decline and the worst monthly data since last April. The control group figure, which is used in the GDP calculation, was even worse at -3.5% in February. While these are very large declines for a single month, they were almost entirely offset by big upward revisions to the January data that was already incredibly strong. The January control group sales figure was revised higher from 6% to 8.7% month-over-month. These are indeed abnormal times. The February data was presumably impacted by the severe winter storms, and looking ahead, the direct stimulus payments from the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan should quickly filter through to sales data for March and April.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
3/16/2021Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.30%1.40%
3/16/2021Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.50%0.90%
3/16/2021Import Price Index YoY2.60%3.00%0.90%1.00%
3/16/2021Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.60%2.50%
3/16/2021Export Price Index YoY4.40%5.20%2.30%
3/16/2021Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.50%-3.00%5.30%7.60%
3/16/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%-2.70%5.90%8.30%
3/16/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.50%-3.30%6.10%8.50%
3/16/2021Retail Sales Control Group-0.60%-3.50%6.00%8.70%
3/16/2021Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.90%
3/16/2021Capacity Utilization75.50%75.60%
3/16/2021Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%1.00%
3/16/2021Business Inventories0.30%0.60%
3/16/2021NAHB Housing Market Index8484
3/17/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%
3/17/2021Building Permits MoM-7.20%10.40%10.70%
3/17/2021Building Permits1750k1881k1886k
3/17/2021Housing Starts1562k1580k
3/17/2021Housing Starts MoM-1.10%-6.00%
3/17/2021FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
3/17/2021FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
3/17/2021Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
3/18/2021Initial Jobless Claims700k712k
3/18/2021Continuing Claims4034k4144k
3/18/2021Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2323.1
3/18/2021Langer Consumer Comfort49.4
3/18/2021Leading Index0.30%0.50%

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