March 16, 2022 Headlines

It’s a relatively quiet morning ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision. A pro-risk tone overnight has U.S. equity futures up more than 1% and Treasury yields 1-2 basis points higher. The catalysts for the improved sentiment in risk markets was perceived further progress in Russia/Ukraine negotiations, as well as vows from Chinese officials to ease regulatory crackdowns in the real estate and technology sectors. The latter fueled a 9.08% rebound in the Hang Seng equity index, the biggest single-day gain for the index since the global financial crisis, and helped shift focus away from investor worries surrounding a Covid outbreak and potential assistance to Russia that had weighed heavily on Chinese stocks in recent days.  For today’s FOMC meeting, there will be, as always, a hyperfocus on the updated “dots”, but perhaps more important than the median FOMC participant forecast for the fed funds rate path will be the updated terminal fed funds rate assumption. In the last update in December, the median long-run (terminal) rate was 2.5%, but markets are currently pricing in a peak rate of 2.3%-2.4% in 2023 and falling closer to 2% in the out years.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/15/22Empire Manufacturing6.4-11.83.1
03/15/22PPI Final Demand MoM0.90%0.80%1.00%1.20%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.60%0.20%0.80%1.00%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.60%0.20%0.90%0.80%
03/15/22PPI Final Demand YoY10.00%10.00%9.70%10.00%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY8.70%8.40%8.30%8.50%
03/15/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY7.30%6.60%6.90%6.80%
03/15/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$58.8b$114.5b
03/15/22Total Net TIC Flows$294.2b-$52.4b-$53.8b
03/16/22MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%8.50%
03/16/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%3.80%
03/16/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.90%3.30%
03/16/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%3.80%
03/16/22Retail Sales Control Group0.30%4.80%
03/16/22Import Price Index MoM1.60%2.00%
03/16/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.80%1.40%
03/16/22Import Price Index YoY11.30%10.80%
03/16/22Export Price Index MoM1.20%2.90%
03/16/22Export Price Index YoY14.40%15.10%
03/16/22Business Inventories1.10%2.10%
03/16/22NAHB Housing Market Index8182
03/16/22FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.25%0.00%
03/16/22FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.50%0.25%
03/16/22Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.40%0.15%
03/17/22Housing Starts1700k1638k
03/17/22Building Permits1850k1899k1895k
03/17/22Housing Starts MoM3.80%-4.10%
03/17/22Building Permits MoM-2.40%0.70%0.50%
03/17/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1516
03/17/22Initial Jobless Claims220k227k
03/17/22Continuing Claims1480k1494k
03/17/22Industrial Production MoM0.50%1.40%
03/17/22Capacity Utilization77.90%77.60%
03/17/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production1.00%0.20%
03/18/22Existing Home Sales6.10m6.50m
03/18/22Existing Home Sales MoM-6.20%6.70%
03/18/22Leading Index0.30%-0.30%


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