March 16, 2023 Headlines

News that Credit Suisse will borrow $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity boosted risk assets overnight. The 2-year Treasury yield rose nearly 15 basis points on the news, but it’s come down to essentially unchanged on the day as U.S. markets open. The lifeline extended to Credit Suisse is the first such action for a major global bank since the 2008 financial crisis, and the company also announced tender offers to buy back up to $2.5 billion of U.S. dollar denominated bonds from investors. First Republic Bank was downgraded to junk status by S&P and Fitch, and rumors are swirling that the bank is an acquisition target by multiple firms. The turmoil in the banking system is calling into question whether the Fed and the ECB will be able to continue with rate hikes, and the ECB’s rate decision will come this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

03/14/23NFIB Small Business Optimism90.390.990.3
03/14/23CPI MoM0.40%0.40%0.50%
03/14/23CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.50%0.40%
03/14/23CPI YoY6.00%6.00%6.40%
03/14/23CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.50%5.50%5.60%
03/14/23CPI Index NSA300.881300.84299.17
03/14/23CPI Core Index SA303.736304.07302.702
03/14/23Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.30%-1.80%-1.90%
03/14/23Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.90%-1.50%-1.90%
03/15/23MBA Mortgage Applications6.50%7.40%
03/15/23PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%-0.10%0.70%0.30%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.00%0.50%0.10%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.20%0.60%0.50%
03/15/23PPI Final Demand YoY5.40%4.60%6.00%5.70%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.20%4.40%5.40%5.00%
03/15/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.80%4.40%4.50%4.40%
03/15/23Empire Manufacturing-7.9-24.6-5.8
03/15/23Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%-0.40%3.00%3.20%
03/15/23Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%-0.10%2.30%2.40%
03/15/23Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.20%0.00%2.60%2.80%
03/15/23Retail Sales Control Group-0.30%0.50%1.70%2.30%
03/15/23Business Inventories0.00%-0.10%0.30%
03/15/23NAHB Housing Market Index404442
03/15/23Net Long-term TIC Flows$31.9b$152.8b
03/15/23Total Net TIC Flows$183.1b$28.6b$26.7b
03/16/23Initial Jobless Claims205k192k211k212k
03/16/23Continuing Claims1723k1684k1718k1713k
03/16/23Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.10%-0.20%-0.40%
03/16/23Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%-0.40%0.20%0.30%
03/16/23Import Price Index YoY-1.10%-1.10%0.80%0.90%
03/16/23Export Price Index MoM-0.30%0.20%0.80%0.50%
03/16/23Export Price Index YoY-0.80%2.30%2.20%
03/16/23Housing Starts1310k1450k1309k1321k
03/16/23Building Permits1343k1524k1339k
03/16/23Housing Starts MoM0.10%9.80%-4.50%-2.00%
03/16/23Building Permits MoM0.30%13.80%0.10%
03/16/23Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-15-23.2-24.3
03/16/23New York Fed Services Business Activity-10.1-12.8
03/17/23Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.00%
03/17/23Capacity Utilization78.40%78.30%
03/17/23Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.30%1.00%
03/17/23Leading Index-0.30%-0.30%
03/17/23U. of Mich. Sentiment6767
03/17/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions70.570.7
03/17/23U. of Mich. Expectations64.864.7
03/17/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.10%
03/17/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%

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