March 16, 2023 Headlines

News that Credit Suisse will borrow $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to shore up liquidity boosted risk assets overnight. The 2-year Treasury yield rose nearly 15 basis points on the news, but it’s come down to essentially unchanged on the day as U.S. markets open. The lifeline extended to Credit Suisse is the first such action for a major global bank since the 2008 financial crisis, and the company also announced tender offers to buy back up to $2.5 billion of U.S. dollar denominated bonds from investors. First Republic Bank was downgraded to junk status by S&P and Fitch, and rumors are swirling that the bank is an acquisition target by multiple firms. The turmoil in the banking system is calling into question whether the Fed and the ECB will be able to continue with rate hikes, and the ECB’s rate decision will come this morning.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/14/23	NFIB Small Business Optimism	90.3	90.9	90.3	—
03/14/23	CPI MoM	0.40%	0.40%	0.50%	—
03/14/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%	—
03/14/23	CPI YoY	6.00%	6.00%	6.40%	—
03/14/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.50%	5.50%	5.60%	—
03/14/23	CPI Index NSA	300.881	300.84	299.17	—
03/14/23	CPI Core Index SA	303.736	304.07	302.702	—
03/14/23	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-1.30%	-1.80%	-1.90%
03/14/23	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-1.90%	-1.50%	-1.90%
03/15/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	6.50%	7.40%	—
03/15/23	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.30%	-0.10%	0.70%	0.30%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.40%	0.00%	0.50%	0.10%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.60%	0.50%
03/15/23	PPI Final Demand YoY	5.40%	4.60%	6.00%	5.70%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	5.20%	4.40%	5.40%	5.00%
03/15/23	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	4.80%	4.40%	4.50%	4.40%
03/15/23	Empire Manufacturing	-7.9	-24.6	-5.8	—
03/15/23	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.40%	-0.40%	3.00%	3.20%
03/15/23	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	-0.10%	-0.10%	2.30%	2.40%
03/15/23	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.20%	0.00%	2.60%	2.80%
03/15/23	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.30%	0.50%	1.70%	2.30%
03/15/23	Business Inventories	0.00%	-0.10%	0.30%	—
03/15/23	NAHB Housing Market Index	40	44	42	—
03/15/23	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$31.9b	$152.8b	—
03/15/23	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$183.1b	$28.6b	$26.7b
03/16/23	Initial Jobless Claims	205k	192k	211k	212k
03/16/23	Continuing Claims	1723k	1684k	1718k	1713k
03/16/23	Import Price Index MoM	-0.20%	-0.10%	-0.20%	-0.40%
03/16/23	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.10%	-0.40%	0.20%	0.30%
03/16/23	Import Price Index YoY	-1.10%	-1.10%	0.80%	0.90%
03/16/23	Export Price Index MoM	-0.30%	0.20%	0.80%	0.50%
03/16/23	Export Price Index YoY	—	-0.80%	2.30%	2.20%
03/16/23	Housing Starts	1310k	1450k	1309k	1321k
03/16/23	Building Permits	1343k	1524k	1339k	—
03/16/23	Housing Starts MoM	0.10%	9.80%	-4.50%	-2.00%
03/16/23	Building Permits MoM	0.30%	13.80%	0.10%	—
03/16/23	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-15	-23.2	-24.3	—
03/16/23	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	-10.1	-12.8	—
03/17/23	Industrial Production MoM	0.20%	—	0.00%	—
03/17/23	Capacity Utilization	78.40%	—	78.30%	—
03/17/23	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.30%	—	1.00%	—
03/17/23	Leading Index	-0.30%	—	-0.30%	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	67	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70.5	—	70.7	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	64.8	—	64.7	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.10%	—	4.10%	—
03/17/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—

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