The Treasury curve flattened overnight in response to rumors around another personnel shakeup in the Trump administration with the 10-year hitting 2.81%.  Rates have since sold off about a basis point in US trading. Housing starts data released this morning showed a 7% decline in February from the prior month, with much of this decline driven by a 26.1% decline in the multi-family starts.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
03/12Monthly Budget Statement-$216.0b-$215.2b-$192.0b
03/13NFIB Small Business Optimism107.1107.6106.9
03/13CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.50%
03/13CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
03/13CPI YoY2.20%2.20%2.10%
03/13CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.80%1.80%1.80%
03/13CPI Index NSA248.933248.991247.867
03/13CPI Core Index SA255.8255.751255.287
03/13Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.60%0.40%
03/13Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.40%0.80%
03/14MBA Mortgage Applications0.90%0.30%
03/14Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%-0.10%-0.30%
03/14Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.20%0.00%
03/14Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.30%-0.20%
03/14Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.10%0.00%
03/14PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.20%0.40%
03/14PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
03/14PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
03/14PPI Final Demand YoY2.80%2.80%2.70%
03/14PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.50%2.20%
03/14PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.50%
03/14Business Inventories0.60%0.60%0.40%
03/15Empire Manufacturing1522.513.1
03/15Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.40%1.00%
03/15Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%0.50%0.50%
03/15Import Price Index YoY3.50%3.50%3.60%
03/15Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.80%
03/15Export Price Index YoY3.30%3.40%
03/15Initial Jobless Claims228k226k231k
03/15Continuing Claims1903k1879k1870k
03/15Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2322.325.8
03/15Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey
03/15Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.256.8
03/15NAHB Housing Market Index727072
03/15Total Net TIC Flows$119.7b-$119.3b
03/15Net Long-term TIC Flows$62.1b$27.3b
03/16Housing Starts1290k1236k1326k
03/16Housing Starts MoM-2.70%-7.00%9.70%
03/16Building Permits1320k1298k1396k
03/16Building Permits MoM-4.10%-5.70%7.40%
03/16Industrial Production MoM0.40%1.10%-0.10%
03/16Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.50%1.20%0.00%
03/16Capacity Utilization77.70%78.10%77.50%
03/16JOLTS Job Openings59175811
03/16Revisions: JOLTS   
03/16U. of Mich. Sentiment99.399.7
03/16U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.9
03/16U. of Mich. Expectations90
03/16U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
03/16U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%