The Treasury curve flattened overnight in response to rumors around another personnel shakeup in the Trump administration with the 10-year hitting 2.81%. Rates have since sold off about a basis point in US trading. Housing starts data released this morning showed a 7% decline in February from the prior month, with much of this decline driven by a 26.1% decline in the multi-family starts.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 03/12 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$216.0b | -$215.2b | -$192.0b |
| 03/13 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 107.1 | 107.6 | 106.9 |
| 03/13 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 03/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 03/13 | CPI YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.10% |
| 03/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.80% |
| 03/13 | CPI Index NSA | 248.933 | 248.991 | 247.867 |
| 03/13 | CPI Core Index SA | 255.8 | 255.751 | 255.287 |
| 03/13 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 03/13 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 03/14 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.90% | 0.30% |
| 03/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.30% |
| 03/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 03/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.20% |
| 03/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 03/14 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 03/14 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 03/14 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 03/14 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.70% |
| 03/14 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.20% |
| 03/14 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.70% | 2.50% |
| 03/14 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.40% |
| 03/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | 22.5 | 13.1 |
| 03/15 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 1.00% |
| 03/15 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 03/15 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.60% |
| 03/15 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.80% |
| 03/15 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.30% | 3.40% |
| 03/15 | Initial Jobless Claims | 228k | 226k | 231k |
| 03/15 | Continuing Claims | 1903k | 1879k | 1870k |
| 03/15 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 23 | 22.3 | 25.8 |
| 03/15 | Bloomberg Feb. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 03/15 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 56.2 | 56.8 |
| 03/15 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 72 | 70 | 72 |
| 03/15 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $119.7b | -$119.3b |
| 03/15 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $62.1b | $27.3b |
| 03/16 | Housing Starts | 1290k | 1236k | 1326k |
| 03/16 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.70% | -7.00% | 9.70% |
| 03/16 | Building Permits | 1320k | 1298k | 1396k |
| 03/16 | Building Permits MoM | -4.10% | -5.70% | 7.40% |
| 03/16 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | 1.10% | -0.10% |
| 03/16 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | 1.20% | 0.00% |
| 03/16 | Capacity Utilization | 77.70% | 78.10% | 77.50% |
| 03/16 | JOLTS Job Openings | 5917 | — | 5811 |
| 03/16 | Revisions: JOLTS | |||
| 03/16 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99.3 | — | 99.7 |
| 03/16 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.9 |
| 03/16 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90 |
| 03/16 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 03/16 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |