U.S. equities are attempting to rebound following yesterday’s 13% decline (biggest drop since Black Monday in 1987). S&P 500 futures traded limit up when the overnight session began but are currently up just more than 1% as volatility persists. The Treasury curve is modestly steeper, with long-end yields 6-8 bps higher. The House passed the revised emergency bill last night, and the White House is reportedly seeking a $850 billion phase three stimulus package to combat the economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis. Policymakers are also keeping a close eye on short-term funding markets. Commercial paper markets, which corporations use for short-term funding, are fractured, and the stress is spilling into all other short-term markets, including repo. Overnight repo rates are trading more than 50 bps above IOER, and 3-month Libor reset 16 bps higher to 1.05%, the biggest one-day jump since October 2008. The Fed is reportedly working diligently on this issue in coordination with the Treasury Department and is expected to announce measures to relieve this stress soon. Lastly, there also reports that 8 large banks used the Fed’s discount window yesterday in an attempt to remove the stigma of using that funding facility.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
3/16/2020 | Empire Manufacturing | 3 | -21.5 | 12.9 | — |
3/16/2020 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $20.9b | $85.6b | — |
3/16/2020 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $122.9b | $78.2b | $78.7b |
3/17/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | -0.50% | 0.30% | 0.60% |
3/17/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | -0.40% | 0.30% | 0.60% |
3/17/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.70% |
3/17/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.40% |
3/17/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | -0.30% | -0.50% |
3/17/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 77.10% | 77.00% | 76.80% | 76.60% |
3/17/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
3/17/2020 | Business Inventories | -0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
3/17/2020 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6400 | — | 6423 | — |
3/17/2020 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 73 | — | 74 | — |
3/18/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 55.40% | — |
3/18/2020 | Housing Starts | 1500k | — | 1567k | — |
3/18/2020 | Housing Starts MoM | -4.30% | — | -3.60% | — |
3/18/2020 | Building Permits | 1500k | — | 1551k | 1550k |
3/18/2020 | Building Permits MoM | -3.20% | — | 9.20% | — |
3/19/2020 | Current Account Balance | -$108.5b | — | -$124.1b | — |
3/19/2020 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 10 | — | 36.7 | — |
3/19/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 211k | — |
3/19/2020 | Continuing Claims | 1738k | — | 1722k | — |
3/19/2020 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 57.5 | — |
3/19/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 62.7 | — |
3/19/2020 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | 0.80% | — |
3/20/2020 | Existing Home Sales | 5.51m | — | 5.46m | — |
3/20/2020 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.90% | — | -1.30% | — |
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