March 17, 2021 Headlines

The Treasury curve is higher and steeper this morning ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year parts of the curve is roughly 5 bps wider, its widest level since the summer of 2015. Investors are waiting to see how the participants’ forecast of the fed funds rate shakes out given the recent moves in the bond market.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/15/21	Empire Manufacturing	15	17.4	12.1	—
03/15/21	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$106.3b	-$0.6b	$8.0b
03/15/21	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$90.8b	$121.0b	—
03/16/21	Import Price Index MoM	1.00%	1.30%	1.40%	—
03/16/21	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.90%	—
03/16/21	Import Price Index YoY	2.60%	3.00%	0.90%	1.00%
03/16/21	Export Price Index MoM	1.00%	1.60%	2.50%	—
03/16/21	Export Price Index YoY	4.40%	5.20%	2.30%	—
03/16/21	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.50%	-3.00%	5.30%	7.60%
03/16/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	-2.70%	5.90%	8.30%
03/16/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.50%	-3.30%	6.10%	8.50%
03/16/21	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.60%	-3.50%	6.00%	8.70%
03/16/21	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	-2.20%	0.90%	1.10%
03/16/21	Capacity Utilization	75.50%	73.80%	75.60%	75.50%
03/16/21	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	-3.10%	1.00%	1.20%
03/16/21	Business Inventories	0.30%	0.30%	0.60%	0.80%
03/16/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	84	82	84	—
03/17/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.20%	-1.30%	—
03/17/21	Housing Starts	1560k	1421k	1580k	1584k
03/17/21	Housing Starts MoM	-1.30%	-10.30%	-6.00%	-5.10%
03/17/21	Building Permits	1750k	1682k	1881k	1886k
03/17/21	Building Permits MoM	-7.20%	-10.80%	10.40%	10.70%
03/17/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
03/17/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	—	0.25%	—
03/17/21	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
03/18/21	Initial Jobless Claims	700k	—	712k	—
03/18/21	Continuing Claims	4034k	—	4144k	—
03/18/21	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	23	—	23.1	—
03/18/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	49.4	—
03/18/21	Leading Index	0.30%	—	0.50%	—

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