March 17, 2021 Headlines

The Treasury curve is higher and steeper this morning ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year parts of the curve is roughly 5 bps wider, its widest level since the summer of 2015. Investors are waiting to see how the participants’ forecast of the fed funds rate shakes out given the recent moves in the bond market.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

03/15/21Empire Manufacturing1517.412.1
03/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$106.3b-$0.6b$8.0b
03/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$90.8b$121.0b
03/16/21Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.30%1.40%
03/16/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.50%0.90%
03/16/21Import Price Index YoY2.60%3.00%0.90%1.00%
03/16/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.60%2.50%
03/16/21Export Price Index YoY4.40%5.20%2.30%
03/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.50%-3.00%5.30%7.60%
03/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%-2.70%5.90%8.30%
03/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.50%-3.30%6.10%8.50%
03/16/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.60%-3.50%6.00%8.70%
03/16/21Industrial Production MoM0.30%-2.20%0.90%1.10%
03/16/21Capacity Utilization75.50%73.80%75.60%75.50%
03/16/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%-3.10%1.00%1.20%
03/16/21Business Inventories0.30%0.30%0.60%0.80%
03/16/21NAHB Housing Market Index848284
03/17/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.20%-1.30%
03/17/21Housing Starts1560k1421k1580k1584k
03/17/21Housing Starts MoM-1.30%-10.30%-6.00%-5.10%
03/17/21Building Permits1750k1682k1881k1886k
03/17/21Building Permits MoM-7.20%-10.80%10.40%10.70%
03/17/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
03/17/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
03/17/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
03/18/21Initial Jobless Claims700k712k
03/18/21Continuing Claims4034k4144k
03/18/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2323.1
03/18/21Langer Consumer Comfort49.4
03/18/21Leading Index0.30%0.50%

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