March 17, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the day as the markets continue to digest yesterday’s FOMC meeting as well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Fed’s updated participant forecast for the fed funds rate (the “dots”) was more hawkish than the market had expected, with the median projection showing more than 10 rate hikes (25 bps each) by the end of 2023. That is two more hikes in 2023 than the market was priced for going into the meeting, and front-end yields repriced 8-9 bps higher yesterday afternoon. The hawkish tone from the Fed is fueling more chatter in the bond market of potential policy error and recession risk, with some pointing to the fact that the 5-year/10-year Treasury yield spread inverted at one point yesterday afternoon for the first time since March 2020. At one point this morning, the 3-year/10-year spread inverted for the first time since March 2007. Household and corporate balance sheet fundamentals are relatively strong right now, but the growing concern is that a too-hawkish Fed will erode those fundamentals as the year progresses.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

3/17/2022Housing Starts1700k1769k1638k1657k
3/17/2022Building Permits1850k1859k1899k1895k
3/17/2022Housing Starts MoM3.80%6.80%-4.10%-5.50%
3/17/2022Building Permits MoM-2.40%-1.90%0.70%0.50%
3/17/2022Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.527.416
3/17/2022Initial Jobless Claims220k214k227k229k
3/17/2022Continuing Claims1480k1419k1494k1490k
3/17/2022Industrial Production MoM0.50%1.40%
3/17/2022Capacity Utilization77.90%77.60%
3/17/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production1.00%0.20%
3/18/2022Existing Home Sales6.10m6.50m
3/18/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-6.20%6.70%
3/18/2022Leading Index0.30%-0.30%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.