The overnight trading session was relatively calm, at least compared to the rest of the week, but Treasury yields are moving lower across curve (8-15 basis points) as the morning progresses. China announced a 25 basis point cut in its reserve requirement for banks, which sparked a modest rally in global bonds. The Fed’s H.4.1 report released yesterday showed that the central bank had lent $292 billion to depository institutions for the week ended March 15. This included a $137 billion increase in discount window utilization, as well as $12 billion of the new Bank Term Funding Program announced over the weekend. In addition to the Fed, there has been significant bank borrowing from the FHLB system as well. Most of these borrowed proceeds appear to have ended up deposited at the Fed as institutions build liquidity in a defense of potential deposit outflows. The same report showed total reserves held at the Fed increasing by $435 billion for the weekend ended March 15. The economic calendar is relatively light ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 3/17/23 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 3/17/23 | Capacity Utilization | 78.40% | — | 78.30% | — |
| 3/17/23 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.30% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 3/17/23 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 3/17/23 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 67 | — | 67 | — |
| 3/17/23 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 70.5 | — | 70.7 | — |
| 3/17/23 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 64.8 | — | 64.7 | — |
| 3/17/23 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 3/17/23 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 3/21/23 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | 3.2 | — |
| 3/21/23 | Existing Home Sales | 4.19m | — | 4.00m | — |
| 3/21/23 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 4.80% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 3/22/23 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 6.50% | — |
| 3/22/23 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.00% | — | 4.75% | — |
| 3/22/23 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.75% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 3/22/23 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.95% | — | 4.65% | — |
| 3/23/23 | Current Account Balance | -$213.6b | — | -$217.1b | — |
| 3/23/23 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 192k | — |
| 3/23/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.23 | — |
| 3/23/23 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1684k | — |
| 3/23/23 | New Home Sales | 650k | — | 670k | — |
| 3/23/23 | New Home Sales MoM | -3.00% | — | 7.20% | — |
| 3/23/23 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 0 | — |
| 3/24/23 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.50% | — | -4.50% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 3/24/23 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 47 | — | 47.3 | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 50.2 | — | 50.6 | — |
| 3/24/23 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.1 | — |
| 3/24/23 | Revisions: Wholesale Inventories | ||||
| 3/24/23 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 1 | — |
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