March 18, 2020 Headlines

Fixed income markets are more settled this morning (in very relative terms) following yesterday’s big sell-off. Treasury yields rose 20-40 bps on the day, and the yield curve steepened 22 bps, as measured by the 2yr-10yr spread. The 3mo-10yr Treasury spread steepened 40 bps and is currently at 1.02%. Equity markets are set for another rough day, with S&P 500 futures down nearly 4% ahead of the open. The Fed is reopening another 2008-era liquidity vehicle, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). This facility allows primary dealers to borrow against a wide range of collateral for terms up to 90 days at 0.25%. In that way, the facility is very similar to the Fed’s discount window, which is limited to only depository institutions. This should further ease the liquidity pressures in fixed income markets, and the Fed appears ready to establish whatever facilities are needed.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
3/16/2020	Empire Manufacturing	3	-21.5	12.9	—
3/16/2020	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$20.9b	$85.6b	—
3/16/2020	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$122.9b	$78.2b	$78.7b
3/17/2020	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	-0.50%	0.30%	0.60%
3/17/2020	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	-0.40%	0.30%	0.60%
3/17/2020	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.30%	-0.20%	0.40%	0.70%
3/17/2020	Retail Sales Control Group	0.40%	0.00%	0.00%	0.40%
3/17/2020	Industrial Production MoM	0.40%	0.60%	-0.30%	-0.50%
3/17/2020	Capacity Utilization	77.10%	77.00%	76.80%	76.60%
3/17/2020	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	0.10%	-0.10%	-0.20%
3/17/2020	Business Inventories	-0.10%	-0.10%	0.10%	0.00%
3/17/2020	JOLTS Job Openings	6400	6963	6423	6552
3/17/2020	NAHB Housing Market Index	73	72	74	—
3/18/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-8.40%	55.40%	—
3/18/2020	Housing Starts	1500k	1599k	1567k	1624k
3/18/2020	Housing Starts MoM	-4.30%	-1.50%	-3.60%	1.40%
3/18/2020	Building Permits	1500k	1464k	1551k	1550k
3/18/2020	Building Permits MoM	-3.20%	-5.50%	9.20%	—
3/19/2020	Current Account Balance	-$108.6b	—	-$124.1b	—
3/19/2020	Revisions: Jobless Claims
3/19/2020	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	8	—	36.7	—
3/19/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	211k	—
3/19/2020	Continuing Claims	1738k	—	1722k	—
3/19/2020	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	57.5	—
3/19/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	62.7	—
3/19/2020	Leading Index	0.10%	—	0.80%	—
3/20/2020	Existing Home Sales	5.51m	—	5.46m	—
3/20/2020	Existing Home Sales MoM	0.90%	—	-1.30%	—

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