March 18, 2021 Headlines

The bond market is selling off this morning as investors grapple with inflation fears. The 10-year is currently sitting at 1.75% and the spread between it and the 2-year has widened out by another 8 bps from yesterday. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting in which participants indicated that they would continue to support the market which has fueled concerns of an overheating economy.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 770,000 last week, its highest level since the middle of February. Continuing claims fell for the ninth straight week to 4.12 million. In his press conference yesterday, Chairman Powell pointed out that 10 million people remained unemployed and that it would take time to correct.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
03/15/21	Empire Manufacturing	15	17.4	12.1	—
03/15/21	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$106.3b	-$0.6b	$8.0b
03/15/21	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$90.8b	$121.0b	—
03/16/21	Import Price Index MoM	1.00%	1.30%	1.40%	—
03/16/21	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.90%	—
03/16/21	Import Price Index YoY	2.60%	3.00%	0.90%	1.00%
03/16/21	Export Price Index MoM	1.00%	1.60%	2.50%	—
03/16/21	Export Price Index YoY	4.40%	5.20%	2.30%	—
03/16/21	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.50%	-3.00%	5.30%	7.60%
03/16/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	-2.70%	5.90%	8.30%
03/16/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	-0.50%	-3.30%	6.10%	8.50%
03/16/21	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.60%	-3.50%	6.00%	8.70%
03/16/21	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	-2.20%	0.90%	1.10%
03/16/21	Capacity Utilization	75.50%	73.80%	75.60%	75.50%
03/16/21	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	-3.10%	1.00%	1.20%
03/16/21	Business Inventories	0.30%	0.30%	0.60%	0.80%
03/16/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	84	82	84	—
03/17/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.20%	-1.30%	—
03/17/21	Housing Starts	1560k	1421k	1580k	1584k
03/17/21	Housing Starts MoM	-1.30%	-10.30%	-6.00%	-5.10%
03/17/21	Building Permits	1750k	1682k	1881k	1886k
03/17/21	Building Permits MoM	-7.20%	-10.80%	10.40%	10.70%
03/17/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
03/17/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
03/17/21	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
03/18/21	Initial Jobless Claims	700k	770k	712k	725k
03/18/21	Continuing Claims	4034k	4124k	4144k	4142k
03/18/21	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	23.3	51.8	23.1	—
03/18/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	49.4	—
03/18/21	Leading Index	0.30%	—	0.50%	—

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