March 18, 2021 Headlines

The bond market is selling off this morning as investors grapple with inflation fears. The 10-year is currently sitting at 1.75% and the spread between it and the 2-year has widened out by another 8 bps from yesterday. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting in which participants indicated that they would continue to support the market which has fueled concerns of an overheating economy.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 770,000 last week, its highest level since the middle of February. Continuing claims fell for the ninth straight week to 4.12 million. In his press conference yesterday, Chairman Powell pointed out that 10 million people remained unemployed and that it would take time to correct.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
03/15/21Empire Manufacturing1517.412.1
03/15/21Total Net TIC Flows$106.3b-$0.6b$8.0b
03/15/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$90.8b$121.0b
03/16/21Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.30%1.40%
03/16/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.50%0.90%
03/16/21Import Price Index YoY2.60%3.00%0.90%1.00%
03/16/21Export Price Index MoM1.00%1.60%2.50%
03/16/21Export Price Index YoY4.40%5.20%2.30%
03/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.50%-3.00%5.30%7.60%
03/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%-2.70%5.90%8.30%
03/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas-0.50%-3.30%6.10%8.50%
03/16/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.60%-3.50%6.00%8.70%
03/16/21Industrial Production MoM0.30%-2.20%0.90%1.10%
03/16/21Capacity Utilization75.50%73.80%75.60%75.50%
03/16/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%-3.10%1.00%1.20%
03/16/21Business Inventories0.30%0.30%0.60%0.80%
03/16/21NAHB Housing Market Index848284
03/17/21MBA Mortgage Applications-2.20%-1.30%
03/17/21Housing Starts1560k1421k1580k1584k
03/17/21Housing Starts MoM-1.30%-10.30%-6.00%-5.10%
03/17/21Building Permits1750k1682k1881k1886k
03/17/21Building Permits MoM-7.20%-10.80%10.40%10.70%
03/17/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
03/17/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
03/17/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
03/18/21Initial Jobless Claims700k770k712k725k
03/18/21Continuing Claims4034k4124k4144k4142k
03/18/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook23.351.823.1
03/18/21Langer Consumer Comfort49.4
03/18/21Leading Index0.30%0.50%

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