The bond market is selling off this morning as investors grapple with inflation fears. The 10-year is currently sitting at 1.75% and the spread between it and the 2-year has widened out by another 8 bps from yesterday. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting in which participants indicated that they would continue to support the market which has fueled concerns of an overheating economy.
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 770,000 last week, its highest level since the middle of February. Continuing claims fell for the ninth straight week to 4.12 million. In his press conference yesterday, Chairman Powell pointed out that 10 million people remained unemployed and that it would take time to correct.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
03/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 15 | 17.4 | 12.1 | — |
03/15/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $106.3b | -$0.6b | $8.0b |
03/15/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $90.8b | $121.0b | — |
03/16/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
03/16/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.90% | — |
03/16/21 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.60% | 3.00% | 0.90% | 1.00% |
03/16/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.60% | 2.50% | — |
03/16/21 | Export Price Index YoY | 4.40% | 5.20% | 2.30% | — |
03/16/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.50% | -3.00% | 5.30% | 7.60% |
03/16/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | -2.70% | 5.90% | 8.30% |
03/16/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | -0.50% | -3.30% | 6.10% | 8.50% |
03/16/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | -0.60% | -3.50% | 6.00% | 8.70% |
03/16/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | -2.20% | 0.90% | 1.10% |
03/16/21 | Capacity Utilization | 75.50% | 73.80% | 75.60% | 75.50% |
03/16/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | -3.10% | 1.00% | 1.20% |
03/16/21 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.80% |
03/16/21 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 84 | 82 | 84 | — |
03/17/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.20% | -1.30% | — |
03/17/21 | Housing Starts | 1560k | 1421k | 1580k | 1584k |
03/17/21 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.30% | -10.30% | -6.00% | -5.10% |
03/17/21 | Building Permits | 1750k | 1682k | 1881k | 1886k |
03/17/21 | Building Permits MoM | -7.20% | -10.80% | 10.40% | 10.70% |
03/17/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
03/17/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | — |
03/17/21 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
03/18/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 700k | 770k | 712k | 725k |
03/18/21 | Continuing Claims | 4034k | 4124k | 4144k | 4142k |
03/18/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 23.3 | 51.8 | 23.1 | — |
03/18/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 49.4 | — |
03/18/21 | Leading Index | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
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