March 18, 2022 Headlines

A modest risk-off tone emerged overnight with optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine negotiations fading. Intermediate and long-end Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points lower, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.7% an hour before the open. On the geopolitical front, President Biden and China’s President Xi have a phone call this morning at 9am ET to discuss China’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concern that China is “considering directly assisting Russia with military assistance to use in Ukraine,” and Biden is expected to attempt to persuade Xi to resist providing any support for Russian President Putin. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who was the lone dissenting vote at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (he wanted a 50 bps hike) said he thinks the Fed should raise the fed funds rate above 3% this year. Bullard is clearly an outlier on the committee, but if demand destruction was your objective, raising short-term rates from zero to more than 3% in a 9-month window should do the trick.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

3/18/2022Existing Home Sales6.10m6.50m
3/18/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-6.20%6.70%
3/18/2022Leading Index0.30%-0.30%

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