Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning, and major equity markets are unchanged to slightly higher on the day. There was little in terms of macro headlines over the weekend, other than reports from Chinese media outlets that the Trump/Xi summit might not happen until June. The general feeling a few weeks ago was that this meeting would occur in late March, and more recently, reports suggested April was more likely. This biggest stumbling block in the negotiations appears to be U.S. demands for enforcement mechanisms, which many experts have declared an imperative component for any deal be considered successful.
The major event on this week’s economic calendar is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Market participants will be paying even closer attention to the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which provides FOMC participants’ forecasts for the fed funds rate and certain economic metrics. Regarding fed funds, the last SEP released in December showed two rate hikes in 2019, and following the big pivot in January to a more “patient” approach to future policy decisions, many will be interested in seeing how these projections have changed, if at all. Markets are also interested in more details regarding the Fed’s balance sheet plans, but it is not certain that the Committee will provide further details in the official releases or press conference.
Jason HaleyManaging Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 03/18/19 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 63 | — | 62 | — |
| 03/19/19 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.60% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.80% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 03/19/19 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 03/20/19 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 03/20/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 03/20/19 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.25% | — |
| 03/20/19 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 03/21/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 4.6 | — | -4.1 | — |
| 03/21/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 229k | — |
| 03/21/19 | Continuing Claims | 1769k | — | 1776k | — |
| 03/21/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.8 | — |
| 03/21/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 54.5 | — |
| 03/21/19 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 03/22/19 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.4 | — | 53 | — |
| 03/22/19 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.5 | — | 56 | — |
| 03/22/19 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.5 | — |
| 03/22/19 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 03/22/19 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -1.00% | — |
| 03/22/19 | Existing Home Sales | 5.10m | — | 4.94m | — |
| 03/22/19 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 3.20% | — | -1.20% | — |
| 03/22/19 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$227.0b | — | $8.7b | — |