Treasury prices are drifting lower this morning, and major equity markets are unchanged to slightly higher on the day. There was little in terms of macro headlines over the weekend, other than reports from Chinese media outlets that the Trump/Xi summit might not happen until June. The general feeling a few weeks ago was that this meeting would occur in late March, and more recently, reports suggested April was more likely. This biggest stumbling block in the negotiations appears to be U.S. demands for enforcement mechanisms, which many experts have declared an imperative component for any deal be considered successful.

The major event on this week’s economic calendar is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Market participants will be paying even closer attention to the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which provides FOMC participants’ forecasts for the fed funds rate and certain economic metrics. Regarding fed funds, the last SEP released in December showed two rate hikes in 2019, and following the big pivot in January to a more “patient” approach to future policy decisions, many will be interested in seeing how these projections have changed, if at all. Markets are also interested in more details regarding the Fed’s balance sheet plans, but it is not certain that the Committee will provide further details in the official releases or press conference.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
03/18/19NAHB Housing Market Index6362
03/19/19Factory Orders0.30%0.10%
03/19/19Factory Orders Ex Trans-0.60%
03/19/19Durable Goods Orders0.40%0.40%
03/19/19Durables Ex Transportation-0.10%-0.10%
03/19/19Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.80%
03/19/19Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%
03/20/19MBA Mortgage Applications2.30%
03/20/19FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.50%2.50%
03/20/19FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.25%2.25%
03/20/19Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.40%2.40%
03/21/19Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook4.6-4.1
03/21/19Initial Jobless Claims225k229k
03/21/19Continuing Claims1769k1776k
03/21/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.8
03/21/19Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.5
03/21/19Leading Index0.10%-0.10%0.00%
03/22/19Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.453
03/22/19Markit US Services PMI55.556
03/22/19Markit US Composite PMI55.5
03/22/19Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%1.10%
03/22/19Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-1.00%
03/22/19Existing Home Sales5.10m4.94m
03/22/19Existing Home Sales MoM3.20%-1.20%
03/22/19Monthly Budget Statement-$227.0b$8.7b