Treasury prices are lower this morning despite weakness in stocks (S&P 500 futures down 13 points). News that Apple will begin developing its own screens weighed on tech stocks, and there’s still some general anxiousness in equity markets related to the Trump/Mueller situation. European Central Bank leaders continue to foreshadow an end to the current QE program in September, which is contributing to today’s weakness in Treasuries. An unnamed ECB source told Reuters, “The only point in extending the programme would be to push out rate hike expectations and anchor the yield curve, but that can be done with other tools.”  Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will headline this week’s economic calendar. In addition to the official statement, the Committee will also release its updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first press conference will follow the meeting. The markets will be focusing especially on the SEP and its projections for the fed funds rate for 2018 and 2019.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPrior
03/21/2018MBA Mortgage Applications0.90%
03/21/2018Current Account Balance-$125.0b-$100.6b
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales5.40m5.38m
03/21/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.40%-3.20%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.50%
03/21/2018FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.25%
03/22/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k226k
03/22/2018Continuing Claims1873k1879k
03/22/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.30%
03/22/2018Bloomberg Economic Expectations54.5
03/22/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort56.2
03/22/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.655.3
03/22/2018Leading Index0.50%1.00%
03/22/2018Markit US Services PMI5655.9
03/22/2018Markit US Composite PMI55.8
03/22/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1717
03/23/2018Durable Goods Orders1.60%-3.60%
03/23/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%-0.30%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%-0.30%
03/23/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.10%
03/23/2018New Home Sales625k593k
03/23/2018New Home Sales MoM5.40%-7.80%
03/23/2018Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
03/26/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.12
03/26/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity37.2