Treasury prices are lower this morning despite weakness in stocks (S&P 500 futures down 13 points). News that Apple will begin developing its own screens weighed on tech stocks, and there’s still some general anxiousness in equity markets related to the Trump/Mueller situation. European Central Bank leaders continue to foreshadow an end to the current QE program in September, which is contributing to today’s weakness in Treasuries. An unnamed ECB source told Reuters, “The only point in extending the programme would be to push out rate hike expectations and anchor the yield curve, but that can be done with other tools.”  Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will headline this week’s economic calendar. In addition to the official statement, the Committee will also release its updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first press conference will follow the meeting. The markets will be focusing especially on the SEP and its projections for the fed funds rate for 2018 and 2019.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior
03/21/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.90%
03/21/2018 Current Account Balance -$125.0b -$100.6b
03/21/2018 Existing Home Sales 5.40m 5.38m
03/21/2018 Existing Home Sales MoM 0.40% -3.20%
03/21/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% 1.50%
03/21/2018 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% 1.25%
03/22/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 226k
03/22/2018 Continuing Claims 1873k 1879k
03/22/2018 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.30%
03/22/2018 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 54.5
03/22/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.2
03/22/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.3
03/22/2018 Leading Index 0.50% 1.00%
03/22/2018 Markit US Services PMI 56 55.9
03/22/2018 Markit US Composite PMI 55.8
03/22/2018 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 17 17
03/23/2018 Durable Goods Orders 1.60% -3.60%
03/23/2018 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% -0.30%
03/23/2018 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.90% -0.30%
03/23/2018 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.40% -0.10%
03/23/2018 New Home Sales 625k 593k
03/23/2018 New Home Sales MoM 5.40% -7.80%
03/23/2018 Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
03/26/2018 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.12
03/26/2018 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 37.2