Treasury prices are lower this morning despite weakness in stocks (S&P 500 futures down 13 points). News that Apple will begin developing its own screens weighed on tech stocks, and there’s still some general anxiousness in equity markets related to the Trump/Mueller situation. European Central Bank leaders continue to foreshadow an end to the current QE program in September, which is contributing to today’s weakness in Treasuries. An unnamed ECB source told Reuters, “The only point in extending the programme would be to push out rate hike expectations and anchor the yield curve, but that can be done with other tools.” Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will headline this week’s economic calendar. In addition to the official statement, the Committee will also release its updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first press conference will follow the meeting. The markets will be focusing especially on the SEP and its projections for the fed funds rate for 2018 and 2019.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 03/21/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.90% |
| 03/21/2018 | Current Account Balance | -$125.0b | — | -$100.6b |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales | 5.40m | — | 5.38m |
| 03/21/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | -3.20% |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.75% | — | 1.50% |
| 03/21/2018 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.25% |
| 03/22/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 226k |
| 03/22/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1873k | — | 1879k |
| 03/22/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 54.5 |
| 03/22/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 56.2 |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | — | 55.3 |
| 03/22/2018 | Leading Index | 0.50% | — | 1.00% |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | 56 | — | 55.9 |
| 03/22/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 55.8 |
| 03/22/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | — | 17 |
| 03/23/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.60% | — | -3.60% |
| 03/23/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | -0.30% |
| 03/23/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.90% | — | -0.30% |
| 03/23/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 03/23/2018 | New Home Sales | 625k | — | 593k |
| 03/23/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | 5.40% | — | -7.80% |
| 03/23/2018 | Revisions: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization | |||
| 03/26/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.12 |
| 03/26/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 37.2 |